I am not trying to defend Swenlin. Really i don't know much of anything about him. And I agree with you that just because a stock is strong is no reason to short it. In fact, I would say going up with strong momentum is the most bullish thing a stock can do. There is an interesting issue of whether or not a stock making a parabolic move is a high risk long (or short). Actually I would say it is definitely a high risk short, long I'm not so sure about. I wish one of the backtesting jocks here would look into this question.
Toshiba unable to keep up with demand of iPod Shuffle... "When it comes to the supply-demand balance we are currently unable to satisfy all customer demands," Muromachi said, noting in particular the launch of iPod Shuffle by Apple Computer Inc. (AAPL.O: Quote, Profile, Research) in January. "Demand created by this new machine is so vast that our current capacity can in no way meet their needs," he said." Full Story: http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuo...=mtfh03888_2005-02-21_10-00-18_t221542_newsml
Apple has been executing very, very well strategically over the past couple of years, and in my opinion has accomplished many key points that will ensure continued success in future years. Here are a few things that I consider important: - Apple Retail Stores - can't emphasize the importance of this enough. Traditional retail stores (Compusmart, Futureshop, etc.) tend to do very little to promote Macs, and Apple was 100% bang on correct to invest in opening their own string of retail shops in order to best promote the Mac "experience" to consumers. Also worth noting that these stores help to emphasize the "cool factor" of Apple in terms of their design and merchandising. - iPod - I don't think that I really need to elaborate on this point. Apple is now going after the Flash segment of the market, I'm sure that there will be more pretty pie charts to follow. - Apple has finally introduced a truly affordable consumer model, the Mac mini. It's not worthwhile discussing tech specs, but the point is that the price point for entry into the Mac side of the pond just got far, far lower. Even better, I guarantee that Apple will still maintain pretty high percentage margins on the new Minis. I suspect that Apple will finally begin to make inroads in terms of marketshare, and potential is limitless, Apple could double in value from only a few percentage points of total PC marketshare growth. The above positive notes given, the one problem that I consistently see with Apple in recent years is their inability to meet demand (supply chain issues) as well as their difficulty in actually forecasting said demand. Part of me suspects that this may be somewhat deliberate though, when was the last time that Dell or HP or IBM was sold out of one of their new hot models? So, all of the above being said, I'm potentially interested in investing in Apple, however I will wait to see how the trading ranges play out after the stock split.
Wow, the entire backwards rationalizing taking place here is simply amazing! It's remarkably similar to the bubble 5 years ago, when people searched for reasons to justify a high and higher stock price after the increase already took place. Guys, this POS stock is simply out of control. I'm not talking about the company. For those here that have an understanding of game theory, let me mention the term "bandwagon effect", aka momentum to traders. Buying forces have gained so much power in this POS stock that normal price finding behavior isn't taking place any longer, just like during the end of the 90's, when countless traders & hedge funds assesed the bubble-condition right but acted too early and therefore burnt their fingers by shorting too early e.g. in '98. Constant short squeezes paired with greedyness. The final spike of this stock is gonna be amazing. Swenlin is right, the market for this stock is clearly dominated by madness, but it's hard to tell when it's gonna show signs of weakness. But I'm sure: once it does show weakness, a couple of dozens of hedge fund traders are enough to crush this POS and transform the speculative AAPL trading positions of countless people into "strategic investments".
Someone posted on another thread whether anyone would take out a mortgage and trade it in the market. Combine that with this thread and holy time travel, I could swear this was the bubble all over again. I don't own any of this nor am I short it but face reality, its going to crash. Your risk tolerance will dictate whether you go with it or not. I would like to thank everyone for trying to justify the price, it brings back good memories of old.
Muahahahah, I can still remember how I thought "what an incredible moron" when I read about an interview with former US finance minister Robert Rubin in London, where he stated that the markets were tremendously overvalued and a major bear market was about to start off. That was in January 2000. Or how an austrian hedge fund manager wrote me in an email reply that it's a bubble and that people every time think that 'this time it's different'. That was in August 2000, and when I read it, I just thought, yeah, you're right, but this time it is different. The wolves are waiting on the side lines.
"POS" stock is one thing. Whether it makes sense as a short, right now, is quite another. Rubin called a bubble in Jan '00? Fine, but there was still huge money to be made on the long side after Jan '00.