I don't think anyone knows whether things will return to what we now assume is normal. Maybe they will, or maybe not. I do think the author of this article raises an immensely important point, however; it is possible that a generation has seen too much chicanery and criminality in the last couple of years, aside from seeing their 401(k)s halved (or worse), and watching bond portfolios plunge in value, on top of scandals such as Madoff, Alan Stamford, etc., etc., plus Lehman & Bear Stears, the use of gobs of taxpayer money used to compensate AIG, Bank of American, Citi and the rest of the morons for their idiotic ways.... ...it may be enough this time to change the psyche in a permanent way.
I think you missed my point. I hardly see how any of the scams were any different than anything we've seen in the past - that's why there have always been waves of regulations on U.S. equities and industry. Now won't be any different, except it was done on a larger scale. Think of the bubbles - tech, real estate, treasuries, gas/commodities, etc. One after another after another. My dad bought a camel filled with beans for $900. It's an entire generation of people who understand nothing about managing money, and it's embarrassing. The losses of capital in tech and real estate were caused entirely by the public as a whole (which of course led to the CDOs in the first place), but the news would rather talk about Madoff. You give a generation of bad money managers an easy line of credit and give them a way to spend money with a click of the mouse (or if you prefer, buying a house with just a signature rather than showing proof of income) and look what happens. If our generation looks at the stock market with a doubtful eye, it means we took our blindfolds off.
Good. The equity markets are not meant to be a "secure form of savings for retirement". They exist for price discovery, to provide liquidity and lower the cost of capital. Again, you're in la la land. The criminal activity - shaken out by the downturn - is an itty bitty, insignificant fraction of all transactions in the market. Just as the police can't stop all crime, the SEC can't stop all fraud. If people can't understand and hedge their risk, then they should stay away from that activity - whether it's a poker table in Vegas or trading. If you don't know who the fish at the table is, it's you. If you want - and it seems this is what you want - the market to only go up and anything not going up is a sign of fraud to you, then you don't understand what a market is and you really should get out. But if you get your wish, you're going to see a loss of confidence and volatility like you've never seen before.
Whats funny is that its more than a generation....The guys I have as clients are between 50 and 80 years of age. They have all, I'm talking 100% decided not to put any more money into the Stock Market. They invest maybe 2% of their entire net worth in to a Fund, Hedge, or what not. The conversations are not in favor of the Markets when I speak with them. Of course, that is good news for me. Nevertheless, it's beyond a "Generation". The Markets have yet to really feel the brunt of "Legislation by Obama", the psyc effect of the corruption from the Banking Institutions to Individuals, to the unwinding of leverage, which is still on going. The 9 to5ers had not choice but to go "Long" in their 401ks and they were matched a %. That has changed. Companies are doing away with their contribution, and less and less lower class and middle class will be contributing to their 401ks. They will use that money to live off. Remember, this is only 8 months in the Making. This event is in its infant stage....we have yet to see the true scars..... Lets just put it this way, Some serious Major Corporations are Canceling all Capital Expenditures across the board until 2010. "you have seen nothing yet" ,
I laugh at how easy it is to pick out ByLo's worthless threads by their inane titles attempting to grab attention. Have you noticed his M.O.: a) When someone accuses him of being on ET's payroll (I did the same several weeks back), he doesn't deny it. b) His reply to any critics is to throw some sophomoric profanity at them - which I thought wasn't tolerated here on ET - thus verifying a). I'll repeat my observation a while back..... - Stocktrad3r, ByLo & S2007S all joined ET in the summer of 2006 (summer break from school, probably), - Each posts drivel to generate controversy (the first endlessly bullish, the latter two constantly prescribing the end of the financial markets in the U.S.), and - Each has made more than 8000 points in a mere 3 years (obviously they aren't traders). Draw your own conclusions.
You seem to be more certain of an outcome than I am. I merely raised the possibility that there is now a lost generation of investors in the U.S. as the writer of the article suggests. Do I believe she is on to something real and significant? Maybe. That's the best I can do. Am I biased? Absolutely. Do I think risk-aversion will play a bigger part going forward in American finance, on both a business and personal level, including the degree of conservativeness in investing? Absolutely. Do I think the prospect of long-term investment in equity markets, whether done individually or as part of 401(k) or retirement planning, will suffer as a result of our recent scandal-ridden, negative return 12 year period? Yes. Does sandygray have a penis or a vagina? Every indicator points to a vagina, and an itchy and discharge-wanton one at that, that may be helped by a megadose of Pamprin.
Hmmmmmmm. You think human nature could change so easily? Better yet, why do you think history repeats itself? Well, it ain't the history but the human folly that clones itself with such a high rate of success every time. I doubt it'll be any different this time around as well. Before long, I'll guarantee you that you'll become an unwilling witness (or perhaps an accomplice) to another bubble.
Where did he state that he could predict where/when the next bubble would be? I just read that he predicted there will be another bubble. Seems like a pretty safe, yet undescript prediction to me.