“A miracle is needed to avoid recession”

Discussion in 'Economics' started by ASusilovic, Oct 31, 2007.

  1. cutting interest rates will just cause the dollar to get crushed, which is happaning now, which brings on inflation crude oil is rallying to make up for the weak dollar. the fed is in a big problem , cut rates inflation there biggest fear comes to life or fuck the real estate market and at have a handle on inflation , once the inflation genie comes out ,they have no control. so they will fuck the banks and real estate market -should have know better--they are dead men.
     
    #21     Nov 1, 2007
  2. There will be no recession

    market will keep going higher
     
    #22     Nov 1, 2007
  3. billdick

    billdick

    half right. Yes the market (the DOW) will go up, but that does not mean the value of owning all the stocks that make up the DOW will increase.

    The Dow is measured in dollars - as the value of the dollar drops more will be required to buy the underlying value of the companies. Part of the mechanism by which this will occur is that with the dropping value of the dollar, foreigners can pay more dollars for the stocks in the DOW at the same net cost to them.

    Do not be confused by the DOW's number. It reflects both the dollar and the value of the companies in the DOW. This may be more obvious to you if you imagine that the Treasury called in all old dollars (as an anti-counterfit measure perhaps) and issued 10 "new dollars" for each. Over night the DOW would go up 1000% but no change in its value or real worth would occur.
     
    #23     Nov 1, 2007
  4. bellman

    bellman

    True, except the US Treasury only mints coins, so that'd be a heck of a lot of quarters!

    :confused: :D :D :confused:

     
    #24     Nov 1, 2007
  5. billdick

    billdick

    I am the one confused. I thought the mint (a division of the Treasury) printed the paper also. (both the dollars and the bonds) if not, who does?

    BTW I have long advocated that the printing of paper money end (in a several year phase out plan) - this would put great hardships on major drug dealers. Either they leave paper/ electronic trails for the police or try to cross the borders with truck loads of coins.

    Also gives the "flat foot" cop an advantage on chasing the robber lugging 70 pounds of coins away from the liquor store. etc.

    It is happening any way as most legal purchases are with plastic cards or checks.*

    Another great advantage is that the honest tax paper would have very significant reduction in his taxes, if all income left records. (I went to a dentist who gave a 1/3 off if you paid in cash with no receipt, for years. I did so and do not think paying in cash was illegal.)
    -------------------
    *In fact one can well argue that the US is now printing paper money mainly for the dishonest , the robbers, and the major drug dealer's convenice!
     
    #25     Nov 1, 2007
  6. Shorting the dollar is the most popular trade on the planet.
    In 2000, when I started getting into gold in this cycle, when I told folks, they looked at me like I had two heads.
    These days, I say I'm a seller of gold and a buyer of US stocks, and I get the same look.
    And, looking at the posts on this allegedly elite site, I get the same vibe.
    It's late in the cycle for gold, and early in the cycle for US stocks. I'd rather be early than late.
     
    #26     Nov 1, 2007
  7. Ah you patriots amuse me. Where is the confidence in your own economy?
    US equities present excellent LONG TERM value.
    I never heard of a recession when GDP in the last two quarters is just shy of 4%.

    You Americans are glass half empty types aren't you?

    Maybe you need to divorce your wives and get a life!
     
    #27     Nov 1, 2007
  8. because GDP numbers are bullshit
     
    #28     Nov 1, 2007
  9. Hopeful, wishful are we? you gambler you. keep praying, you will certainly need it. p
     
    #29     Nov 2, 2007
  10. maxpi

    maxpi

    Then your selling power relative to all other currencies is expanding...
     
    #30     Nov 2, 2007