interresting situation at AA , thoughts ? HD link http://imgur.com/zH1Tmo4 the recent signs of strenght in AA , could yield into some long setups , i drew in two scenarios to participate in a potential long setup
You can't use technicals to predict earnings reports, and as you know AA will soon kick the earnings season. Sometimes, info leaks and you can see the footprints of big money behind such leak, but it's reliability is far from desired due to "traps" big money is also famous for laying.
Hi MadeMan, There is no clear "breakout" here, so what's this all about? Unless someone, somewhere is trying to dump a million shares of AA at our expenses, here on ET and elsewhere...
OP, What's the point of the technical analysis of the past? I always get a kick out of those old "marks". Only the present and future matter, rest is over.
yea , i cant predict , but anticipate/participate and take responsibilty for my position , however i will only enter .. if> then , else... you mentioned "traps" ... well, the current situation might implys just that. just think about every average joe blow , sees that AA is a resistance @10.80 waiting for a breakout to the upside and rush in with buy stops / market orders whatever.. to play the breakout to the longside.. but this demand/strength/liquidity created can be used by big boys , to sell into , or dump .. ie. fading the breakout , maybe they use the earnings report aswell for that purpose.. who knows ? but then again iam not that agressive , i wouldnt play a breakout straight away but rather wait and see how the market resonses to such a breakout , if ever
hi yea there is no breakout as of yet , except on smaller time frames but we sit at an interresting level @resistance where only two things can happen , 1 a reversal /rejection of Res. 2 a breakout one could play both if that is in his trading plan...
Well , thats how i operate and judge the markets. Iam not here to convince you that this is the way to trade or something, but the past does hold some information in it it represent the prints, ie. the trades which have been fasciliated , where value is and where price got rejeceted, where is balance and where imbalance , where demand or buying pressure is present or where selling and supply is overpowering or where a shift or change in behaviour in supply vs demand takes place etc.. btw. Your Present , might not be the present of another participant, as you know, there are Longterm and shortterm traders/investors etc..alike Different participants have different timeframes for buying and/or selling; longer timeframe participants seek to buy low and sell high,and short timeframe participants must transact sooner and cannot be as discriminating. In other words, a given price is not viewed as an equal opportunity for all. The market cannot at any one moment balance all the needs and concerns of the entire marketplace - participants in every known and unknown timeframe - since the most recent price does not represent the same thing to all participants. In other words, no single price represents fair value Most of the popular prejudice against charts is due to the fact that many people mistakenly attempt to use charts in a mechanically fashion. They endeavour to draw diagrams or imaginary geometrical patterns on their charts and as such lead to error and fail. When you study charts look for the motive behind the action which a chart portrays. Aim to interpret the behaviour of the market and not the fancy patterns which the chart accidentally creates. and right know AA does have recent signs of strenght in the background , however we are at an location where it wouldnt be wise to go long, as we sit at a resistance level , we need to watch how the market acts at this level ,, does it breakout? if so how does the market react to it ? how can i participate? does the market reverse ie. rejects resistance? if so how does the market react to it ? how and in which way can i participate? i know what i will do ... do you ?
so , what happend on monday , a workday after the numbers ? which where, as i read , rather weak ... well this looks like a selling cimax, where buying into weakness may occured , however we only know if this is a valid SC if a retest of the lows hold... doesnt look that weak,, does it ?
I like Alcoa, we were up on a down day and down on a up day. Alcoa is a stock of great patience, like Boston Scientific (BSX), with big Auto moving with Aluminum and other high tech materials, I have been on this ride and see no reason to jump off. I think we hit $16 by July 2014, my price target is based off the Market not cratering in the ground.