A Word About "Arbitrage"...

Discussion in 'Trading' started by bone, Mar 12, 2021.

  1. Overnight

    Overnight

    The answer may be here...



    I just love the acronyms! :)
     
    #81     Mar 22, 2021
  2. Obviously, there isn't one since it's settled on a cash print. That actually makes the print a very scary risk since CME don't have a functioning EFP market for bitcoin - if you can't smack the print exactly, you can very much get fucked. It's a very scary trade, similar to VIX/strip "arbitrage".

    Treasury futures basis is a very tame trade in comparison - you know your deliverable with high degree of certainty (especially these days), you have a functional market for basis packages, you can even try to shop for term repo.
     
    #82     Mar 22, 2021
    eternaldelight likes this.
  3. bone

    bone

    Yeah, I’ve traded the Treasury Basis Sporto. You were just looking for a place to drop names.

    Why else interject a fungible futures contract blowout tangent from left field into a cash settled contract discussion.

     
    #83     Mar 22, 2021
  4. Oh, really? Pop-quiz, hot shot - whats feature makes the basis in ultra-long bond futures a tiny bit more expensive?
     
    #84     Mar 22, 2021
    YuriWerewolf likes this.
  5. destriero

    destriero

    Rarity of deliverables.
     
    #85     Mar 23, 2021
  6. tsznecki

    tsznecki

    Not trying to beat a dead horse but read below by sle. Now you have 3 people saying it's probably not counterparty risk vs you.

     
    #86     Mar 23, 2021
  7. Sig

    Sig

    Pretty sure we're talking about the CME BTC futures here.
     
    #87     Mar 23, 2021
  8. tsznecki

    tsznecki

    #88     Mar 23, 2021
  9. Sig

    Sig

    OK. I'm afraid at this point you're so focused on "winning" this discussion that you're not actually tracking the points being made. From the beginning of this conversation I've advocated that the returns from what appears to be an "arb" opportunity is simply a reflection of the risk involved in executing that "arb". For the unregulated exchanges, much of that risk is in the exchange failing. In regulated exchanges, @sle has helpfully added some more complex and nuanced risks that a naïve view of the arb opportunity miss. Some apply just to CME (like no EFP) while others apply to both. No matter the case, the point is that entering into this trade get's you the appropriate risk adjusted return and if one thinks it's a spectacular return they're not accounting for all the risks. I'm not sure if you disagree with that or you're just being disagreeable?
     
    #89     Mar 23, 2021
  10. tsznecki

    tsznecki

    Wow. After your rant directed toward me on seeing other perspectives here:

    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/a-word-about-arbitrage.356875/page-5#post-5349642

    Which I agreed it is possible here:

    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/posts/5349763

    Then @Same Lazy Element says the same thing @misterkel and I have been saying, that is it is not counterparty risk, even though there are risks present.

    You write the above after melting down yet again, and say I'm focused on "winning" when you refuse to consider a viewpoint at least 3 others have been saying while criticizing myself for something you are blatantly doing. Talk about pot calling the kettle.

    sle didn't say a single word about non regulated exchanges. His response is to my question to you about CME BTC futures.

    I don't believe I need to be civil anymore.
     
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2021
    #90     Mar 23, 2021