Okay, rough numbers here, mainly because I am too lazy at the moment to do the real math. And I've had a couple of drinks... This system is plus approximately 90 ES points (after commissions, which cost me ~ $4/roundturn) from the beginning of 2012. There has been substantial drawdown in the month of April, due to whatever reasons the financial media has said caused it. Tomorrow could be the beginning of another massive uptrend. Or it could be Armageddon. There could be an Iranian/N. Korean/Mexican (seriously, you don't think there are nukes there?) nuclear crisis. Or Bernanke could announce QE3. Historically, the market has moved upward. Why? Because the market relies on investment from the masses. Do the masses invest in a downturn? Not for long. It is in the best interest of the major financial institutions for the market to continue to rise over the long haul. At least until the puppet-string pullers decide that it's time to change course. So that is why, after fifteen years of studying the market, that I came up with a system that BUYS the open. Yes, there will be down days, maybe many of them. But it's in the best interest of those who control the destiny of the financial system for the masses to believe that everything is fine, just keep buying.. Time for another round, it's on me this time!!
Can't expect to make money with 50/50 p/l ratio, plus commissions. Can't expect to make money being biased. There is a lot you could actually implement to your , so called, simple system. 1. Add moving averages, 20/40 EMA, if the ma's are up and the stock is above it, then consider going long, if ma's are down and the stock is below, do the short. 2. If ma's are flat and the stock is in between, stay out. 3. Change your risk reward, lets say your risk 10 to make 20, using trailing stops etc... 4. Wait for the first 15-30 min, then put a buy and sell orders a tick above and below the high and the low.. But even after all this changes there is still no guarantee...if you want to make a living trading, especially day trading,, ,it comes to...either you know what you are doing or you don't.... ----------------- I mean, if you are so stubborn, and keep insisting that it will work, put your money where your mouth is see what happens. Trust me, you wont last long..... I can also guarantee you, that after your 4th or 5th consecutive loss, you will take your stop out, double down on a loosing position and blow out your account... good luck,,,, cause you seem like a stubborn type ....
Thanks for your post, and yes I am a stubborn type. I think I have made it abundantly clear that I do not plan to trade this system in it's current form with real money. Short-term results have been positive, long-term results have not. What I have been looking for, and the reason I started the thread, is what I have been getting so far from people like you: advice and ideas on how to take a simple strategy and tweak it to be a winning one. As I stated before, I have spent thousands of hours over the last dozen plus years learning about the markets. I have also spent thousands of dollars making mistakes and blowing out accounts. I have finally reached a point in my trading where I have a couple of profitable setups with defined entry and exit rules that work for me, and allow me to make a decent living trading them. I appreciate the contributions that you and the other posters have made, and look forward to putting them together to see what may come out of it.
Long ES 1373.75, Stop 63.75, Target 83.75. Talk about "buying the highs"...ugh. The actual open was 73.50, but I gave up a tick being slow on the click. I find it rather interesting that we opened at the same price as yesterday, after closing at 63.75, and then testing the 60 area.
Currently around five points to the good on this one. A break above 80 should push the trade to the target. Logically a trailing stop here would minimize potential losses. In the interest of following the inital rules the stop is being left alone. Seems like everyone is looking to sell this move, but that may be why it keeps climbing...:eek: