It is not up that much. For 2 years and 1 month, simulation results were up $8000 with an $8000 drawdown.
Code, results, equity curve, annual and monthly period results. No slippage or commission. That will make it a losing strategy.
That backtest confirms there are extended periods of market activity where that "bullshit" strategy does very well indeed. I'm sure the OP will appreciate learning that.
Results with a $3 per side commission and 2 ticks of slippage make this a losing system to the tune of -$24,159 since 3/31/2010.
Thanks for the support RC. Beau, I know you're a busy guy, but I must ask you for a huge favor. I am too stupid and simple to perform this analysis as quickly and efficiently as a "Quant Master" like yourself is able to do. In order to show how vastly superior your system is (which "utilizes quantitative methods of analysis from pairs trading to trend following price physics, capital management arbitrage, risk management arbitrage, and statistical analysis"), please post the year-to-date (January 1 to present) results of your system, in comparison to the one that you have deemed to be "bullshit". I backtested this "stupidly simplistic" system the old-fashioned way on paper and concluded that it has made roughly 120 ES points YTD. Using the formula of trading one ES contract intraday, which requires a $500 margin, I come up with a 1200% return. But again, I am simple and stupid, and not a CTA like yourself. Thanks in advance for all your help, looking forward to your reply.
Per my results: You'll have to wait until the beginning of next month. Your backtesting is inaccurate, and the code is identically equivalent to what you described. Your strategy has not made 1200%, because there are 100% losses in some cases, so even if you wanted to say 1200% you blew that account 5-6 times this year. You're showing inexperience with your quotation of preposterously overstated results, when backtesting it takes 10 minutes and takes longer to load the chart than it did to code. The market may be turning down, so don't expect this strategy to work in anything but an up market.
Magna and ET don't want me to do that. Free advertising rules. Monday's the last day of the month, so if you want to know you'll have to wait until a couple days after that. My performance is available in real time elsewhere anyway, so until I have it computed I'll wait the month out to publish the results.
And besides, this thread is about a "stupidly simplistic bullshit" system, not one that has been designed and managed by a "Quant Master." Beau will have to start his own thread for that...