sounds like what happens to Soros in "pitbull" ...he sells a crapload of contracts at the mkt...the locals pull all bids...then bid it up promptly...Soros got smoked
This is a question of market psychology. Im thinking of a theoretically pure market where everyone is on level ground. MM's cant gap the market. There are no brakes. A purely, theoretically free market, unlike what we really have. A LARGE group of players, free to bid and off. Then a GIANT fish with unlimited capital steps in, selling short like crazy until half the value is lost. Then buys it all back, driving prices straight back up at yet another incredible rate. Again....focus on market psychology. For example....I could hypothesis the following. 1)As the market started to plummet, the momentum traders would jump in too, further accelerating the fall. 2) At some point, these short term players would cover, and then the bottom pickers would step in for their scalp, causing an upward burst. 3) It quickly fades as your selling overtakes, and the market plummets past the lower point. 4) This would continue for many cycles and each time the bottom pickers would get destroyed. The value players would get destroyed too. 5) Everyone would be stunned, until the point that a lot of people would be in sooooo much pain from their losses they could barely trade from the pure SHOCK of what was happening. 6) Then you hit the 50% mark, and start buying back like crazy, 7) The players that have been burned so badly so quickly sit there stunned as you buy back tons of contracts for very cheap. 8) Many are convinced this puppy was just gonna keep going and continue to sell to you. By the time people REGAIN their belief that the market really is climbing this time and it is not simply another HORRIFIC mini bear market rally, you have already made a killing. You close out your position at a huge profit. Hows THAT sound? Just a hypothesis. I dont believe this. Im completely not convinced either way. But think back to the time when you were learning to trade. Typically, you get greedy and sell your winners too quickly for a profit. You hold on to your losers and pray. Think about that dynamic in this context. I think this fear/greed dynamic COULD make you a LOT of money in this scenario. Ok...so what do YOU think? peace axeman