After reading your post one of Jesse Livermore quotes popped up in my mind "Whenever the market does not act right or in the way it should - that is reason enough for you to change your opinion and change it immediately." jesse livermore I would say time is as important as price all the best
How true, it seems some trading rules remain valid over the years. Besides, it also reconfirms the importance of backtesting in trading world.
Not to sound negative...... Here comes the BUT! Every free indicator I have back tested has proven to be worthless. Some will work for a short time then they always start losing. This includes testing different time frames, indicator lengths and even combinations. You can even flip the buys to sells and no matter what the systems keep on losing. Indicators for the most part seem to be an illusion of safety. When you look at a bar forming the illusion quickly diapers and then returns after the bar is formed and there was a clear signal.... Oops to late now... The only indicator I have got to work in the long term is one I wrote myself... Here comes that BUT again... But it does not make enough to cover the commission. No matter how you look at the TIME the issue is always going to be using old data that has been manipulated and changed that causes the unpredictability of indicators that also creates a illusion of a profitable system after the fact. That is my useful input for the day..
? Superiority... ? Secret ? ?? He is talking about time. Most of us learned what time was in 1st grade. I like how OP states several times how the logic is 'tricky....' or 'dizzying' it made me laugh... Time and timing are critical to trading success, but it's not all that complex. You just need to be aware when price is telling you when you are wrong. Price (and time for that matter) can do anything after you enter. You have no control over the ultimate outcome of a single trade. Therefore, you can bail on a trade after a certain amount of time, but it might still be a winner ultimately, it should be price action and your plan which confirms your exit. Used to deny this but it is true Neke had an edge, clearly. Several years of return at the rate he did is not luck by any stretch of the word! They key is he isn't adapting. I'm pretty sure he's still trying to use the same old methods. Think, if you made so much money doing 1 thing for multiple years, how hard would it be to change? Yet another great paradox inbedded in trading. I guess "you can't teach an old dog new tricks." Thank you Satan for your "useful" input.
=========== Range/Trend Oh! You gave a way one of my ''secrets'' on your chart; the ''secret ''Donchian channel.Well it pays to have more than 1 ''secret'' Ever noticed indicators may stop working after exposed; then resume working later??.LOL Price fall is more likely in a bear market[below secret 200 dma]; bull markets [above 200dma]are full of sideways trends, then up again.
interesting that they post 1000's of words, but cant manage a simple trade call here. like buy XYZ, target X, stop Y interesting
Well, if you trade mechanicly you will notice that an edge disappears. if you trade discretionary i.e. 10 different systems through eachother you won't be able to discern what factor caused your edge to fail, it is seen as one edge.
Looks like why Dr Baron Rothschild gave up trading, and started selling courses on trend trading.Selling trading education is guaranteed income , trading is not guaranteed income , only losing is guaranteed.