Not enough information is right. With additional assumptions such as A winning and B losing = wash, there is still an important question as to how often each gives a signal. A simple Excel Monte Carlo analysis shows that the likelihood of getting a signal is a significant factor in applicability: Code: A Likelihoo A Trades A Net Net % Wins JoinTradin Joint Net Net % Wins 100% 5502 990 18% 2889 1001 35% 90% 4974 1004 20% 2309 881 38% 80% 4410 806 18% 1832 700 38% 70% 3823 811 21% 1418 514 36% 60% 3273 619 19% 1021 363 36% 50% 2785 555 20% 685 279 41% 40% 2225 363 16% 467 163 35% 30% 1665 357 21% 272 94 35% 20% 1053 215 20% 114 52 46% Taking three samplings Code: Sample 1 Sample 2 Sample 3 A Prob Net % Win Net % Win Net % Win Std Dev 1 35% 39% 40% 0.028 0.9 38% 41% 39% 0.015 0.8 38% 38% 42% 0.023 0.7 36% 39% 37% 0.014 0.6 36% 42% 40% 0.033 0.5 41% 42% 36% 0.032 0.4 35% 36% 33% 0.015 0.3 35% 36% 39% 0.023 0.2 46% 36% 38% 0.051 So under these additional assumptions the Net % Win is 36-41% instead of 20%, but depending upon the frequency of trades, you are passing up 99% of your opportunities. The assumption of uncorrelated returns is also a killer, bad assumption.
Profit & Loss -> trading "Winning" percentages -> math Are you looking for a math answer, or a trading answer?
Assuming both methods are operating on the same time frame and on the same instrument... You enter a trade on method A. Properly backtested 60% chance of reaching your target. You have an asssumed 60% chance of reaching your target on this trade. You enter a trade on method B. Properly backtested 60% chance of reaching your target. You have an assumed 60% chance of reaching your target on this trade. So, what is the question? Because the signals overlap you have a higher probability? Incorrect. The question is flawed due to lack of information. However, if we give the question any merit, the REAL answer is to BACKTEST the success of overlapping signals. This will tell you how well the methods sync. I promise you, if any idiot thinks he has solved this problem with any amount of conviction, the backtest will differ from his result. When the methods overlap, it could result in 90% failure due to the nature of the methods. Similarly, they could result in 90% success.
I agree with ksmetana. System C which is a combination of system A & system B is a complete new independent system. The combination of the systems may or may not increase the accuracy of prediction. To find out the winrate of system C, you have to measure it directly, there is no other way.