What about just buying Spy when the vix curve is fully in contango, and exit otherwise. You can check this at vixcentral. com.
You should take @destriero's post to heart. Learn from him if you can, he is the real deal. For me, I would rather buy a DOTM LEAP call. But I am amateur and a gambler.
A bit late to the thread, but I caught your folly in time. You are equalizing individual stocks with a stock index. They are mutually exclusive concepts when it comes to PA and risk. Stocks do NOT tend to go up more than they go down. If you believe that, you read a very bad book by a charlatan. You would know this if you actually OWNED any stocks for a decade or three. Or did any simple chart research on a few tickers. The stock MARKET since 1970 has gone up, because that is an INDEX. It is not a stock. Do you understand what I am cooking? BWS is my Rock who is cooking things. Heed him, man.
Maybe you do. I hit the "follow" button. It's free, nothing to lose really. One question, and it is totally not me being sarcastic... but how do you think you'll do in a downtrend if and when it were to occur? Because if you're good, that matters too. Either way... I did hit the follow button. Hopefully you'll stick around and share some ideas.
I have been doing this for 27 years, and have been in two bears. 2000-2003, and the GFC. In both cases, I did fine, but not as well as I could have. I bought a little more, but then got nervous, and just held what I owned not selling anything. If I had bought a lot when it went down, I would have made a killing, but emotionally it is hard to do that.
Don't talk BS ! Do you mean the options expert website Investopedia has it wrong when it below says "drift" ? FYI: param r ist the drift: