A trading idea

Discussion in 'Options' started by shMark, Feb 3, 2024.

  1. Quanto

    Quanto

    Encountered a fishy-looking behavior of Delta: gives for DTE=3y, S=100, K=10 and IV=10 a Delta of 1, for IV=50 a Delta < 1, and for IV=500 again a Delta of 1.
    Isn't this illogical? Or is this caused by some internal floating-point rounding errors?
    It seems Delta is "oscillating"...
     
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2024
    #11     Feb 4, 2024
  2. Quanto

    Quanto

    Finding IV for a DITM strike (here K=10) with Delta=0.999, using these other specs/params:
    Code:
    find_IV_for_Delta fCall=1 Delta=0.999 S=100.0000 K=10.00 DTE=1095.00 IVstart=100.00 IVend=1000.00 IVstep=1.00 rPct=0.00 qPct=0.00 :
    fFound=1 cSteps=204 IV=303.00 DeltaX=0.999
    
     
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2024
    #12     Feb 4, 2024
    shMark likes this.
  3. shMark

    shMark

    I don't use margin. To afraid of screwing up. I did not say I could pick market beating stocks. I said, you can pick stocks that will go up. It is actually very hard to beat the market over a long period of time for most investors.
     
    #13     Feb 4, 2024
  4. destriero

    destriero

    The value of the call is priced to the forward + put premium (reversal). The difference between the call price as proxy and the shares is the put. Sure, the call is a cheaper outlay but there is no free lunch.
     
    #14     Feb 4, 2024
  5. shMark

    shMark

    Perhaps, the strategy should be used on SPY.
     
    #15     Feb 4, 2024
  6. So you want to trade based on generalities, fear and ignorance of standard tools, and no ability to pick stocks - but want to focus on option strategies.

    Hint: changing the color of your screwdriver will not grant you the ability to design a nuclear power plant.

    Incidentally - I'm not trying to be mean or insulting; I'm trying to tell you that your approach has nothing worthwhile in it. Not even a learning opportunity, since your basic premise is flawed. But it seems you're banging ahead regardless of what you're told, so... good luck at the slot machine, I guess.
     
    #16     Feb 4, 2024
  7. shMark

    shMark

    I have an ability to pick stocks. I know technical analysis and fundamental analysis. Can I beat the market, maybe not, or if I can, by 1.5% per year. Unless you have a very concentrated portfolio of 8 stocks or so, which you spend an enormous amount of time studying, it is hard to beat the market by more than 1.5% per year. I have been picking stocks for 27 years, it is much harder than people realize to beat the market by more than a small amount. At one point, you could beat it by picking small value stocks, but that stopped working.
     
    #17     Feb 4, 2024
  8. shMark

    shMark

    Anyway, I am risk adverse, so I will paper trade before committing real money to these strategies. I sold options before, and it took a lot of time, and then I made a terrible trade. One of those you sell a cash secured put, and it goes down 20% in an hour.
     
    #18     Feb 4, 2024
  9. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    If you can't beat the market and are risk-adverse then, paraphrasing (Bruce Lee's "be like water"), be like the market.

    Buy an index, get good steady returns, while lowering your transactions costs considerably.

    Leave a check with the receptionist on your way out. :sneaky:
     
    #19     Feb 4, 2024
    BlueWaterSailor likes this.
  10. shMark

    shMark

    How about DITM leaps on SPY then?
     
    #20     Feb 4, 2024