A top in HOV?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by maxtrax, Mar 30, 2004.

  1. maxtrax


    Does anyone else see a potential top forming in HOV?

    One chart I am looking at in particular is HOV. Two big red candles started the fall from 48. The days that followed could not regain half of what was lost. Then the second wave of the decline.

    Since then it has formed an intermediate bottom and has seen a rally peak just above the rally after the 2 big red candles only to produce a shooting star.

    We had a nice 3% rally the past few days, however this stock has participated zero. This stock breaks 42 and I think it will take out the 36 level for its bigger second wave down.

    This stock been steady through out the past years, but perhaps it running out of steam, and may be a part of a bigger sign regarding the economy.

    Any thoughts?
  2. maxtrax


    Sorry, previous post did not have correct chart file.
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  3. BSAM


    Be aware of that rising window (2-27-04). Somewhere around 40.60 could provide support.
  4. On this last up move from the lows at 1084.75 to 1121.75 close today. Looks like the whole sector is vulnerable to a big move down in the coming weeks ahead unless the SP500 makes a new high. New highs in the Bond market would be another thing to give this sector some support. But I'm bearish for now.....
  5. Looks like it could be a repeat to me.

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  6. maxtrax


    Similar pattern, but those 2 big candles in the beginning of December are very important. I think its the start of a new trend there. Mostly because it has never gained any of it back.

    Im a newbie though.
  7. Looks like bull flag . All home builders have similar type of flags.
  8. Solid analysis.
    The Trend is your friend.
    Observe what is happening and assume it will continue.

    Even the most recent pullback in bonds the past couple of days ( 3.75 to 3.90 on ten year ) has not had much of an effect on this group, which I might add is trading at roughly 10 times earnings.
  9. So you think this is a TOP.... with a potential downside to 36 (noticed you didn't indicate an upside risk) ?

    Well then....... why not just short it. Why ask for opinions from others of whom you have zero idea into their analytical or trading skills?

    Long time ago I learned to never pay attention to other traders... other than for basic concepts from those I knew to be successful. Asking for opinions like you did is a sure sign that you're not ready to trade successfully IMHO. We went thought that stage many years ago... asking others for some kind of opinion on a chart, etc. There's more to it than meets the eye. You did your analysis... so post after you enter the trade and you have the responsibility of "right" or "wrong"! Why shift it??!.


  10. p.s. Just bought some ITM SOX calls... can you please give me an opinion on what to do next?! Someone, please! :eek: Please :eek: Should I spread them. Credit or debit? I just don't know! Maybe I'll ask my GF or late-grandmother via my ouija board. :p


    #10     Mar 30, 2004