I just listened to Michael Covel's interview with Toby Crabel. Crabel is a trader I've studied quite a bit, due in part because a friend of mine has worked for him. I highly recommend listening to this interview, as he makes some good points. One key point he makes is that "your edge needs to be doing what other people are uncomfortable doing." That is also a similar lesson that Richard Dennis taught to the Turtles, which was to "do the hard thing." By that he meant taking a breakout even if it didn't feel right at the time. In any event, you can check out the podcast at the link below... http://trendfollowingradio.com/ep-2...w-with-michael-covel-on-trend-following-radio Many thanks to Marketsurfer for posting it originally
Not at all. The edge has to do what most other people are not doing. The bank will move the price in the direction of greater profit. If most people are doing what they find uncomfortable doing, then the smaller number who are doing what they find comfortable will stand a greater chance of winning, at least temporarily. Once the profit is exhausted in one price direction, the price will turn to seek the profit in the other direction. SO nobody is truly safe. A real edge is either knowing where the herd is or knowing where the bank is. One you have to go against, the other you have to follow.
First thing you've posted I agree with We fish for whales..., hunt for elephants - both leave sign to read..., tracks to follow RN
Simply because I feel like being redundant http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/some-ways-to-define-a-trend.287858/page-8 RN
Lightening bolt must of hit Crabel in 1990, cause the Crabel that tried to mentor me in 89/90 is not the same Crabel managing funds. I had contacted him in 1989 as I was doing research in opening price to closing price and tomorrows' price. He said he was in process of writing book and had a daily newsletter on it. He told to come to Chicago for one on one seminar at CME on a weekend and bring certified check for a grand. He had such a nice plush office and the guy that I came up to see, he didn't resemble at all the picture he had on some article he wrote, Crabel said he didn't want his picture cause he didn't have much hair left, LOL. Don't know when he worked for Niederhoffer, cause his plush office was really his bosses office who was a cattle trader in the pit and running a small brokerage. Crabel real office was a corner table in side office where office coffee was. He said he was lucky when he started in T-bill pit, buddy got him the job, was a time where you bought at the open and went to go play basketball and come back before the close to get out. Highlight of that weekend was I kept badgering him how much did he trade based on his market calls, kept telling me he couldn't make good calls if his money was on the line, LOL. I think I was the only one paying for that newsletter, he use to hand deliver newsletters throughout CME before markets opened. He got a raw deal with that publisher and why no other editions, he did give me three copies of his book, still have them.