How long would you keep it running until it did hit your SMA20? What Symbol are you trading? Es P.S. What do you mean with the first candle of the bullish spot index? Daily candle...5 minute candle? Can you post a chart?
TTT, Very good. I believe this is a good simple trading system that is worthy of about 20-50 trades to see how it can make some money. It is a good strategy because: 1. It has a predefined profit target and stop loss and entry. 2. You can get plenty of sample testing data because each day the first candle will be big. Now here are some questions to ask yourself about the new system: 1. How will you know if the system make money? 2. When will you stop trading system ? How much money do you need to lose before you stop trading the system and say "this method does not make money, put in trash" 3. How many trades do you need to make decision for question 2? All you need now is some performance metrics of the system. The expectancy metric is a good metric to start with. Pretend you have $5000 in your trading account and try your new trading method. What I am trying to say is: Even though you have a trading system to test, you need to know if this system is money making system or not. And you have to determine this quickly so you don't waste alot of time.
TTT, No such thing as a stupid trading system. What is stupid is: Continuing to trade a non-profitable system and not knowing when to stop trading it AND wasting time, energy, and money.
Why don't you just pull up some historical charts, go back in time, and see how over time you would lose money. That will answer your question.