A strategy I read about

Discussion in 'Options' started by shMark, Feb 27, 2024.

  1. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    If you have a "system".... the casino will send a limo to pick you up. :sneaky:
     
    #21     Mar 13, 2024
    MarkBrown likes this.
  2. Quanto

    Quanto

    The OP said he read this in a book.
    Anybody know in which book this is written about?
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2024
    #22     Mar 14, 2024
  3. Quanto

    Quanto

    But are you aware of the fact that the $165 premium for strike 240 would mean a Delta of about 0.9361, not 1 ? And it has an IV of 38.3747. You better should check your numbers in an options calculator like this:
    https://optioncreator.com/options-calculator

    Here are the historical ATM statistics of SPY (site requires registration).
    So, maybe strike 165 can have an IV of 38 (due to VolatilitySmile), but as shown it's not Delta 1.
    For Delta 1 SPY would need to have an IV > 600 :), which is very very unrealistic.
    But OTOH if such a Delta of "only" 0.93 is sufficient, then the strategy is maybe not bad :)
    I haven't tested this scenario yet, but it indeed could be interesting.

    SPY_HV_and_HIV.png
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2024
    #23     Mar 14, 2024
  4. Quanto

    Quanto

    The above analysis was done with a risk-free rate 0%.

    Using a risk-free rate of 2.1% for the said strike 240 makes its Delta almost 1 (0.993), and this then means an IV of 17.0.
    The calculators I tried give an error when entering a risk-free rate > 2.1% as then IV becomes negative :).
    So, this new analysis by also recognising the risk-free rate indicates that the strategy is indeed realistic and can function... :)

    It invalidates also my old analysis which too was done with only a risk-free rate of 0%.
    So we see how much the risk-free interest rate can have an impact on the results... :)
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2024
    #24     Mar 14, 2024
  5. Leverage: Leveraging Up and In Options for Enhanced Returns' - That's the book name. I found it online from the quotes the OP shared. I dunno who is the author, but I think you can download it online.
     
    #25     Mar 14, 2024
    Quanto likes this.
  6. Quanto

    Quanto

    Last edited: Mar 14, 2024
    #26     Mar 14, 2024
  7. Quanto

    Quanto

    Do you remember what the title of the book was, or any link that describes/analyses the strategy in some more detail?
     
    #27     Mar 14, 2024
  8. I think it's just an article or a piece of a book that has never been published.
    As I see from your discussion and the calculator you've shared here, those sources can't be counted as trustworthy.
    Well, the saddest thing is that even when you sign up for a class, tutors share papers like this, where you never know the title or the author's name. Besides, they usually support it by saying, 'I just printed it out for you. The most important part is you don't need to read the whole BOOK.'
    I found this link just by taking a quote from the OP's post, leading me to this link.
     
    #28     Mar 15, 2024
  9. Quanto

    Quanto

    Maybe just happening as his profile says:
    "@shMark was last seen: Tuesday at 6:33 PM". Ie. maybe no time for ET anymore :)
    IMO he indeed has a system as the latest analyses show.
     
    #29     Mar 16, 2024
    vanzandt likes this.
  10. shMark

    shMark

    Sure. There were two. I am reading another book with a similar strategy, but here are the two. One of them is free.




     
    #30     Mar 18, 2024