Discussion in 'Trading' started by stonedinvestor, Jul 24, 2007.
Thanks Ivan that was bad english I prettied it up!
I think CFC's conference call is likely adding extra pressure now to the market. This feels ugly folks! But let's remain ambivalent. In discussing the housing market the co said that they are""seeing home price depreciation at levels not seen since the Great Depression" You know I saw a piece on the Florida Condo market and it was scary... is this how recessions start? I'm starting to get quite a bit of lower back pain remembering how active I was yesterday...
There are some new kinks to the market now. For one all these funds that have 30% short all the time, they are so fashionable but as they grow in popularity aren't they propping up the market? ~ SI
Ok, in a weak move I put IMMR in the wife's IRA @ $17.20 folks! Along with some FRPT. I could buy it myself but that would be the double hex I often worry about. If I don't get greedy and just leave it alone... there is a very great likelihood it will soar for you all as I sit on the sidelines...
The trouble is I think I want it too!
PS. Rumor of a Money Market Fund blowup is sweeping through the offices of my broker I don't know how that can be possible aren't those low yielding instruments always based off treasuries? Every one I have ever been swept into has....
PPS. Today The NDX has completed an 8 day head & shoulders type top formation & resistance is now at the neckline near 2018-19
Ok new day new way. It hasn't started well for me there are workmen out my window on scaffolding and I think one of them just saw me blow a bong hit at him. Not good in any circumstance but at 9:23 in the morning....
I'm edgy. I'll admit it. AMZN is not helping it gives the Bull appearance in a wacky way this snap back rally might have to be sold into as much as it hurts me to say it.
Tuesday had all the characteristics of a climactic selling event. But was it? It was a weird day I'm almost tempted to throw it out the window and just chart from here but I know too many other folks won't. They now see what I think I was the second to point out on the Net- The head & Shoulders pattern on the Nasdog.
NYSE Breadth of -2656 is the 5th worst over the past 17 years, total breadth was the 8th worse. NYSE Up volume was a scant 6.7%, again, an excessive reading that some folks call a 90% down day. We are in a oversold condition.
Lets not forget that before Countrywide CEO doused the flames the NAz had made a great comeback, they gapped em' down big in the morning, but managed to snap back in a three-wave rally. The NDX actually had a much stronger performance during that rally. Validating my whole all in on tech mindset lately. The S&P 500 basically marked time back and forth in a bear flag-type pattern. In the afternoon, they began rolling over, and as soon as support was broken they had a slide that lasted the rest of the day. Folks the head and shoulders top pattern that had developed on the Nasdaq 100 and the Q's must be reckoned with now and do we adjust our thinking going into august????????
Oh my they couldn't price the Chrysler debt! Hell's gate swing wide open, fiery bitch from the depths release thyself, the world is over, the locusts the locusts...
Is it it just me folks? Am I the big disconnect?
Yes we are going to return to more normal levels of borrowing. Yes all massive spikes eventually crash- so here's your credit spread/ borrowing banker debacle. When these banks agreed to lend money out and at such a such rate it didn't' effect me any. On the way up, when the loans worked out, the banks didn't pay me any- and their stocks in fact languished thought this whole M&A churn. The whole argument that now that banks and brokers have to dip into their massive reserves to make up the difference in the spread on these loans and some new PE projects might not get off the ground for a few years ... that we have to then crash stocks..It's such a stretch to make this the catalyst.
Todays action is indecisive and I feel like I did to start the weak " A Strange Feeling "> kind of eerie, the bounceback- near textbook, almost fake, the roll over so obvious-- neither is very convincing luring or scary...after a huge downday like yesterday many many stocks were down of course but I saw an awful lot of fractional losses you know down 40 cents type thing... except the brokers and banks and here we have a problem but the fact is folks let's take a step back- I Have A Mortgage! Even me. And you know what? When I got it it was tough as hell. I didn't meet the income requirement, I worked at Andy Warhol Studios- the references were sketchy and perhaps drug laced- it took a mia culpa from my mama to Chase to get it done and then it was for 7 3/4% AND I WAS HAPPY!! VERY HAPPY. Life was good, the market had no problem going up, doing deals, borrowing money-- you see it's a couple bad eggs who use leverage and blow up that start this kind of free fall & usually then some smart money makes out like bandits and buys this debt on pennies on the dollar- thats' investing. The piranha comes in and swipes it up-- in sub prime the question is who wants it? and I agree it's a problem- they are going to have to write it off.
For the greater part of America who is working, they are making their mortgage payment and for those good citizens caught in a trap with ridiculous rates YOU GOT TO READ THE fine print folks nothing is for free. I re upped for 15 year at under 5% , so that buying power is mine now for 15 years... so many people did don't forget>> there are as many smart folks out there as dumb asses. I bet you didn't know the Margin Borrowing that is at an all time high (apparently) at $353 billion is actually only $68 billion when you net out cash balances. All that refinancing plays a roll here. You see people are borrowing not out of weakness but because they could to do more stuff. Surly when the tide changed they stopped. My mom is caught with an extra house right now I know how it is but she also was able to finance this new house purchase without a problem.
So I can't help it, this market is too textbook, too trying to make this into the big story... even this trickle up to tier 1 debt or whatever and the inability to get these companies IPO'd again who cares! That's the risk the greedy investors in Fortress and the others have to worry about. My god if you are kicking ass making cash and shipping to China why does any of this matter? It's Back To The Beach for me. This is all too stressful.
A Strange Feeling Pt 2 Coming Soon to a terminal near you.
Why do idiots continually post market predictions? My guess is it's because of a psychological disorder where they need constant validation. Trading probably has little to do with it.
Your guess would be right my friend. Why did a major investment house just raise their S&P target by 1000 points? Who knows? but it's like earnings estimates- you need them to keep you straight that's what I'm here for on ET and to to keep the world going around. ~ SI
The investment house did it to get other people to move the market in favor of the investment house (whatever that may be).
I hope others find your commentary useful.
He isn't a trader. He's more of an investor. Great investors have to extrapolate current available data to price an intrument into the future. Therefore, the best investors are the best predictors.
If you're a (all)day trader with an attention span of a monkey, ie 1 second, even that involves some degree of prediction. You have to ask yourself if clicking that button will put you in the direction of a profitable trade.
No 0pm geez I can tell you are a newbie- the investment house did it because they grossly underestimated this years market. If you had read consistently stoney's updates you would be on the right side of this & feel heartened because (1) the market is right on schedule (2) each correction and minor set back has been anticipated and reacted to accordingly. (3) Each major issue has been thrashed about and identified as bear food....
But what of an 87' like crash? wasn't that a stoned possibility too?...
Keep reading 0 and you will become a more informed investor. That's all we can ask for these days: less bench jockey, order takers/salesmen types and more informed investors.
peace. ~ si
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