A State of Irrational Exuberance

Discussion in 'Economics' started by cszulc, Apr 6, 2008.

  1. cszulc


    It is my view that we're in a state of irrational exuberance, just like Greenspan stated in his 1996 speech.

    Assets, especially stocks, are still overvalued, despite the decline in the past 6 months. The credit crisis, although calmed a little bit, is still extremely bad and companies and consumers are unable to borrow money.

    Obviously daytraders cannot or shouldn't have a bullish or bearish bias. However, as both a swing/position trader and daytrader, I still see deteriorating economic conditions that will push us lower into the 2nd half of the year. I have been adding short positions throughout the past few weeks, especially on that Tuesday where we were up 390 or so.

    I'm surprised S&P futures are up 7.50 right now and Dow futures up 59. I'm thinking more bank rumors may spread soon, especially going into earnings season this week and next.

    Disclosure: Long 200 SDS and Short 2 ES Futures into tomorrow morning (avg 78.75)
  2. mickson


    I am in your camp, being short in my mind is logical but we have not yet had the confirmation. The current bounce may last a little longer, but I think one more bad news on the solvency front will tip things and start a further selloff.
  3. cszulc


    Could be a double top in the overnight ES at 1380. I'm holding short overnight.
  4. I'm short U.S. consumer discretionary....long Emerging market staples....waiting for commodities correction, but not short yet.

    I'm one of the only global macro position traders here. Kinda lonely.

    I know nothing about daytrading, to be honest. And I don't believe in TA. I've only been doin this for ~2 years now.

    Anyhow, if I had to make a SPY call for the next 6 months, it would be bearish....

  5. good luck. although there are no major economic event catalysts that might get you your desired result until perhaps the AA earnings tommorow, beware of this.
  6. scriabinop23 as i recall you used to be a raging bear. i see you learned some painful lessons on being too early to short. i'd advise all people to forget about shorting and go long on big dips as the win ratio is 95% or more over time. so many people are trying to short this market now as they just know its about to crash. they'll be crying uncle soon just like there short brothers 10 days and 600 pts ago
  7. dinoman


    To early to short, but the time will come again. Wait until you here the shorts later this week scream bloody murder. It may even take longer than that. I still see room up to the 1416 area on the spoos. We could see a one day -200 move though that would run right back above that down day.