A brief interlude from PA to address gurus and unsuspecting buyers: Anyone selling an actual trading system should be suspect. If you have a solid trading system you would never sell it because you're making a lot of money with your system and you'd risk diluting your edge by selling it. Selling a system makes no sense whatsoever and there should be no unsuspecting buyers; every potential buyer should be highly suspicious. Anyone selling books/DVDs about trading psychology or technical analysis/price action is fine by me. I've learned so much from trading books and webinars that I can confirm it's worth the small cost of books, webinars and DVDs.
I'm with you No Doji except that the market is not always as kind as you make it out to be, respectfully, I'l afraid you are too optimistic in your examples. Consolidation and chop many times comes before we can spot it, when we already have our scars to show. Many times the two-bar breakouts you suggest are nothing but noise up and down chopping your head off with tiny losses and this can happen just about anywhere, and so forth. Bottomline trading is not that easy and rarely that kind Good posts by the way, just too optimistic when I apply to reality. NAD
with all due respect, maam. are there or are there not any significant differences between webinar presentations and presentations contained in trading books dvds et al....? essentially, from what i knew.... if gurus have enough financial resources, they would go for the best mode of presentation to attract UNSUSPECTING potential buyers or buyers who are hoping to make a comeback.... others who are not able to fly first class to attract suckers, they would employ other less expensive means to advertise their wares.... this has been my understandings and experiences. i agree with you wholeheartedly that no sane person would ever hog off any of their profitable setups. and those setups that are for sale, particularly the ones that i happened to come across, e.g. the 5,000 usd offered by j et al which consists of several exponential moving averages crossing the monthly and yearly trends et al.... oppps, i am giving away what i am doing here.... lol i would definitely not be interested in any of those offered publicly for sale under any circumstances. however, attending FREE webinars to listen to others who claimed to be experts in this and that specialties can surely help us to gauge ourselves and what we know and experience against whatever they claim to know or to have for sale.... or for whatever other purposes and reasons....; is my humble one man opinion which could be very far from correct or applicable in your own area of knowledge and specialization.
if a trader desires to trade for a living and stays in trading for a long time.... and not intend to trade for thrills and excitements.... both of which would come naturally with each live trade, profitable or not.... the trader should not try to focus at all at the bottom nor the top.... remember even managers at the pits would often err in calling tops and bottoms.... as for many of us, imho, we should focus on making profitable trades, entering a long or a short, a few bars following evidence of bottom or top.... from my limited experiences.... that is how 80% of us stay alive and well.... i must admit humbly that i am just not smart enough to call tops or bottoms.... but i do recognize if and when a trend is just about to begin.... neither am i smart enough to predict what the opening price for tomorrow or on monday would be.... no, am just not that smart.... sorry.... :eek: i always trade what i see on my screen and act accordingly, regardless of what other gurus said, done or predicted.... all the external signals would not have any bearing at all in my placing my trigger long or short. i must focus on my setup regardless. but i must confess, many a day for many long hours, i did have to sit with both hands under my butt.... to wait for a profitable setup.... thx for listening, happy and profitable trading everyone. FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH.... SEE ATTACHED FOR MONDAY TF MARKET.... some renown guras with fees paid trading chatroom is recommending GOING SHORT TF on monday, june 20, 11. NO, I AM SITTING PRETTY UNTIL TF BEGINS TO MOVE.
apologize.... for some unknown reason, i could not find the browse button to click to include a pix for your enjoyment and examination, at the bottom of last post. here is the referenced pix. enjoy and act prudently, pls.
I see the main difference in how some of you trade. You seem to be drawing major trend lines, while I only draw minor trend lines plus support and resistance lines. That is very interesting. However, with my indicators, the minor trend lines for me are more important.
Awesome stuff, NoD. I'm truly in awe of you traders who can run all these if-then statements through your mind and still keep a clear head in real live bullets trading. Thanks for the feedback and I'll be sure to re-read and process it all fully. Do you use a stop or a stop-limit when you reverse direction? Given that you have to keep breakout trades on a tight leash I assume stop-limit would be best. If day trading you could get burned on a bad fill if the breakout is sharp enough.
I really like the stop-and-reverse idea because it potentially profits from pattern failure. Just as everyone who saw the obvious pattern is stopping out with a loss you're taking the other side of their trade. Even if you played the pattern in the traditional way you now have a shot to make back your own loss by playing the failure. Easier said than done and something I've never tried to do, but I like the idea. Here's a down channel with an upper rail that should be clear to pretty much everyone. Several bars from the right edge an obvious short entry when price rolled over after touching the upper rail. I took that as a short in my walkthrough of this chart. But price turned back up and made a new high, taking out my stop. As price was rising up after the sharp one-bar down move that triggered me in short, I thought "uh-oh". I couldn't see a reason to move my stop because for all I know it could roll back over again. But I did decide I would reverse if my stop was hit, which it was. So at the hard right edge I'm holding long. Stopped out for a 9 tick loss on my short and currently sitting with a 2 tick profit on my long with a stop at breakeven.
just for your info on the chart, price did go down to around 775.0, my short order at 774.9 was not filled as of 09:44:12
GURU j's call for short tf this morning did not materialize as yet. and it is almost noon now. i guess, this morning, i would not be able to recover my daily average fees prepaid to listen to his call.... see attached pix however, i did pickup several tics from cl. happy and profitable trading during afternoon session everyone. i guess i already got my quota this morning. i'll go and play with my great grand son some. thx everyone.