Most of the things you mentioned are not edges, they are things that enable you take advantage of an edge. A true edge is a way to extract excess profits from the financial markets, having a good broker, solid discipline, etc. Tells you NOTHING about when you will buy and sell and therefore beat other market participants Take blackjack for instance, an edge is a counting strategy, having discipline will help you take advantage of the edge by avoiding mistakes, having a large bankroll enables you to survive the swings, choosing weak casinos will help you by enabling you to count but the single most important factor if the fact that you can count cards, all that other stuff wont make you money if you dont have that.
I never said they were edges. I said they do and will have an impact on your trading results if you're a discretionary trader like NoDoji or anyone else that's not using automation/mechanical trading system. Further, just the fact that you specifically said yourself that these critical variables... Enables you take advantage of an edge is agreeing with me that they are critical variables that have impact on your trading results. Like I said, it's really not debatable especially since we are essentially agreeing about their importance. As for discipline...one of the key variables you have already stated has an impact on someones ability to take advantage of an edge. If you truly believe that if you don't follow the rules of your trade method or trading plan itself (lacking discipline) that it will not impact your trading results... (that contradicts what you stated originally that the variables I mention will enable a trader to take advantage of the edge) Your trading results should be the same based upon what you're implying...correct? Mark
Bottom line is where is the statistical evidence that trendfollowing is an edge in intraday data?Acrary seems to have found it but the post where he wrote no longer works. Furthermore he found that 2 out of 13 years intraday trendfollowing did not work well, so for all the lemmings who think trendfollowing is some kind of magic, during that sample there was a 15% chance the trader would just piss their money away all year. The gurus wont tell you that
You should send NoDoji a private message just in case she doesn't see your question here in this thread for whatever reason. I don't know Acrary and I'm not a trendfollower. Yet, I must admit that it's very nice when I do catch a trend when such wasn't planned. Also, I have read that most futures trading instruments only trend 20% - 25% of the time. That implies that someone using a trendfollowing method or trying to catch trends will have a tough time at it 75% - 80% of the time assuming they're trading every trading day. Therefore, there may be a little truth to what you said... Like I said, we're not debating...just agreeing. Mark
macattack just want to reassure you that.... it is possible to pick up nickles and dimes, here and there but surely not every where.... yes, it is possible to become profitable in trading but we must have patient.... extreme patient.... to wait for our predetermined pattern, setup, then.... hard stop, trailing, breakeven plus 1, 2, 3 or whatever, and the emergency FLAT button; for just in case.... while in trade.... we fall asleep amongst our friends--our dream, the reality and our fantasy.... there are many good suggestions in et.... they are all free here.... good luck....
Ok, here's today's euro update. I've been wondering if I should put these charts into a separate thread. Maybe something like "Dave's learning how to trade channels journal" or something? So here's the channel I had drawn on the euro last night.
And here's how it played out. After price broke out of the channel and then dropped sharply back to it just after midnight, I drew in the purple down trendline from the same high the channel started from. First pretend trade was the first red arrow. Short on a break back into the channel. I didn't take the initial break into the channel because the big 5-min bar spooked me. But I tried it after the retest of the upper line. I was targeting the lower limit but it never got there. Had 40 ticks or so at the 1:45ish low but then it came back and stopped me at breakeven. Next trade was short at the purple trendline (second red arrow). I took the stop-out on the up bar at 4:40 (thin green arrow) as it looked like price was supporting on the channel and about to climb higher. Of course that was the last push higher before the drop. With NoDoji's "take all the trades mantra" in mind, I re-entered short on the third red arrow and price made it to the red upper limit target. I wasn't watching at the 7am but had I been I'd have tried to short. Looks like it would have come back and stopped me for little or no gain (or maybe a loss, who knows). So 1 for 4. Feedback anyone?
Exit 124.140 for a $1462 profit... In SIM . So far practicing this method.... 4 trades 1 with a few ticks profit 2 BE +1 tick 1 Big winner PS. while in practice I will be assuming using a 25,000 dollar account with $125 max risk per trade and a $500 dollar daily loss limit.
may i have your permission to put up a 6E chart below your euro chart just for a gross glance over, perhaps? not saying one is better than the other, ok? just enjoy the diversities among et members, alright.
The year of statistical analysis I did for my chosen trend-following setups with my defined trade management rules demonstrated a 70% success rate. This is strictly using a 5-min chart. The year I analyzed included a bull market correction, a renewed bull run to 2-year highs, strong trend days, weak trend days, wide range days, narrow range days, and a price range between the $60's and the 110's. That's what I call "varying conditions" and my strategies proved profitable through all these conditions. The major adaptation I had to make was when price began trading in the $90-$100 range this year, and the volatility picked up. I began using the 1-min chart to see inside the 5-min setups and enter positions off levels where my max stop loss would survive. My other choice was to place wider stops, but the 1-min time frame obviated the need for that.