A simple price action approach

One more thing, beware with simulators and playback software widely available out there.

Demand something like this:



Then re-conciliate with time and sales if you suspect "guruism"

NH

 

I post live calls for my long term trades. On a long term basis, who cares if you're off by a few cents. It's not like you're scalping ticks. You can't manipulate long term live calls.

In the past I've posted live intraday trades, too. And shown charts (with the entries and exits marked by OEC's charting program). And shown PnL statements. But that wasn't scalping, either, that was like "just bought ES here, here's a chart, target profit x, stop loss is y, will add more at z" so it was accounced ahead of time and it will be blatantly obvious to everyone if it hits the TP or SL.

Gurus also give vague rules for their systems and answers to their questions. It's hilarious and sad at the same time when people fall for it.


Anyway it kinda looks like this downward trendline is holding. Price kinda bounced off of it and is making a doji or whatever now.



Did you TL guys short like crazy at that point?

I thought there was some "rule" about each subsequent time price hits a trendline its less likely to hold or something like that.

 

Of course, we're still in an uptrend depending on how you look at it.

 

Trendlines bend and fake a whole lot more than they hold, I don't trust them or use them for trading.

I agree about swing based calls, less "guruism" there.

NH

 

I agree with you, but people in this thread use them, and I'd be interested in learning how they do.

I have an absolutely open mind to discuss any method with anyone until they start getting all guru-like (vague, non-specific, side stepping questions, not quantifying, etc.).

 

using tl's.market profile and your original analysis,you can whittle it down to better entries,exits,position management...the chart below suggests that spy will return to 28.30 mean

 

I use TL's but I only trade failures, not continuations.

 

How do you know how much data to use? Change the timeframe and the volumes will change = different data = different mean.

 

How do you quantify a failure vs a fake failure? Where do you set TPs?

 

Well I have NYSE TICK criteria that has to match, and I have volume criteria that has to match as well. If a bearish TL breaks and we are trading above the last volume "spike", I'm expecting that volume spike to hold as support. Vice versa for shorts. My two trades for the day were a long at 7:35 and a short at 8:51.