A serious discussion on EUR/AUD

Discussion in 'Forex' started by Ivanovich, Oct 7, 2008.

  1. I'd like to open a serious conversation, if one is possible, about the EUR/AUD pair. Look at it. Is that not a picture perfect parabolic move? I had to go back to 1998 synthetic Euro data to find that rate before.

    Does anyone believe this move is sustainable or is a massive correction in the cards? Feel free to look technical or fundamental.
  2. What is a 'picture perfect parabolic move', serious question.

    I've looked at all time frames and I can't see how any technical analysis could be applied to the Aud, levels seem to mean nothing when it's on a mission!
  3. Alright, let me state it another way. Check the move in the last few days versus a historical chart - going back to the Euro's inception or the synthetic beyond. Now think risk/reward.
  4. levels mean nothing? i just scalped the bounce off 2.00 easiest trade of my life :)
  5. I must be missing something, all I see on Eur/Aud is a range on the daily then a nice breakout around 1.74 in September, that would have been a nice trade, is that what you're looking at?
  6. Apart from being a psychological number was it a technical level? I seriously can't see anything technical about the pair.
  7. technicals in non major crosses? what?

    how do you feel about eurusd?

    how do you feel about the inverse of audusd?

    go from there, except on VERY large time horizons (maybe).
  8. Will try and answer.

    Basically, the move is caused by the EUR strengthening against the USD, while the AUD is weakening against the USD. So the move is amplified as the EUR and AUD rip apart with the USD in the middle. These moves are rare, since the EUR/USD and the AUD/USD usually correlate over the long run.

    Exotics are hard to trade, since you must essentially analyse two different pairs. You are measuring the relative strength of AUD and EUR vs the USD. Very tricky.

    Look at the following very long term chart and I think you'll be less confident in being able to determine what the next move will be.

  9. Very true. Would act as a great number generator for slot machines. :p
  10. You bucketshoppers should see how these weird crosses trade on ECNs and institutional platforms. I wouldnt touch that shit! Even cable is getting wiley tonight, its been 12-20 wide on BARX for 2 days straight now. GBPAUD quotes just make me want to puke.
    #10     Oct 8, 2008