The hot areas are starting to see some action. Just like in the stock market the weak hands will be shaken out. I doubt that the current fed chairman will give us a depression style outcome. (warning do not click this link unless you have hours to kill.) http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05341/618606.stm The real question is the direction of interest rates next year. The weak hands who live and die by a few basis points will need a break. If not then the speculators with real capital, you know who I mean, will eat them for lunch. The rich will get richer and the other dummies will rent and all will be right with the world. As an aside, you old timers know that anyone who can fog a mirror could have purchased a property in the past five years and probably did. Next year should be lots of fun!!
I am betting on this end game: 1) housing market softens further in 2007, more inventory, more foreclosures (prices drop another 5 to 10% most markets from where we are now) 2) Fed panics, starts cutting rates (screw inflation) 3) dollar crashes below USDX 80 after a brief rescue attempt which puts it up to 87.5 first half 2006, then 2nd half 2006 it falls below USDX 80 4) we start getting serious inflation in 2008, and that combined with low interest rates, causes housing to stabilize and bottom out, and housing inflates its way out of trouble after 2008, combined with buying interest from foreigners with stronger currencies. 5) housing prices rise steeply along with everything else 2010 onwards as US govt inflates away all debt obligations (such as medicare and soc security). yep thats the way its going to be, wait n see
It's funny how I keep hearing about "weak hands will get shaken out" . I think it's those who got away early that could keep a profit in the stock market in recent years.. Those who thought they have strong hands, held on, lost a big chunk of money. Some of these threw themselves out the windows.
So houses prices that are 1 million dollars today will be 3 million by 2010 ? Hasn't it risen steeply enough ?
go look at what happened to housing prices during times of high inflation, like the 1970s and no, I mean housing prices up 10 to 15% per annum from 2010 ONWARDS so by say 2020 yea, that 1 million dollar house now will be worth 3 million prolly
So houses prices that are 1 million dollars today will be 3 million by 2010 ? Hasn't it risen steeply enough ? http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html
How do you bet on that, i.e. what are you long/short? I just want to see how you get screwed up.....don't overleverage yourself - otherwise it's going to be your <i>end game</i>
http://www.housingbubblebust.com/NaplesAuction.html Auction results in Naples. Could someone explain this ?