pockets of stable prices, thats all. over time these will disappear. did anybody hear bill gross this morn. on cnbc ? bgp
Foreclosure Surge in California http://www.realtor.org/RMODaily.nsf/pages/News2007041706?OpenDocument
When the inventory of homes, prices, and year on year permits/starts stop dropping, and foreclosure rates get back to normal, lets say for 2 or 3 months, then I think you could guess the bottom has been hit if the economy doesn't worsen from there.
Local Home Sales Up, Prices Down Advertisement Email this article Print this article Subscribe to BUILDER More articles from the Breaking News section Coverings Show: Day 2 - Trendsetters Softer Texas Sales Hit D.R. Horton: Homebuilder's Profit Falls 85% As U.S. Slump Seeps into State Builder Confidence At Low Point In Memoriam: Bernard "Bud" Rotter Freddie Mac, Washington Mutual Offer Billions Arizona Homes Project Halted Area Home Sales Show 8.8% Drop in March: Realtors' Report Could Signal a Possible End to Housing Boom New Products Revealed at Coverings Show Bankrate: Mortgage Rates Retreat on Inflation News Boomers Cut Ties With Their Stuff As They Move into Smaller Homes Source: Buffalo News Publication date: April 17, 2007 The Buffalo Niagara Association of Realtors reported 825 homes sold in the region in March, up 4 percent from a year ago. The median sale price, meaning half sold for more and half sold for less than that amount, was $93,810, down 2.3 percent from $96,000 a year ago. The average sale price was $113,474, down 4 percent from March 2006. [Posted 2:26 PM] (c) 2007 Buffalo News. Provided by ProQuest Information and Learning. All rights Reserved.
I can see that. But it would be hard to sell short because your transaction costs (closing costs) would eat you up on the buy and sell. Whats interesting is that the housing prices fell 3 or 4% over the last year. Wonder how that compares to the previous 3 years? If its like my local market, I will happily give up 4% if I can keep my gains from previous years. SM
***Well, I can take solace in the fact that Lereah now thinks that things won't improve until 2008. Since he's always wrong, this is bullish. Existing home sales plunge in March By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Economics Writer 50 minutes ago WASHINGTON - Sales of existing homes plunged in March by the largest amount in nearly two decades, reflecting bad weather and increasing problems in the subprime mortgage market, a real estate trade group reported Tuesday. The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes fell by 8.4 percent in March, compared to February. It was the biggest one-month decline since a 12.6 percent drop in January 1989, another period of recession conditions in housing. The drop left sales in March at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.12 million units, the slowest pace since June 2003. The steep sales decline was accompanied by an eighth straight fall in median home prices, the longest such period of falling prices on record. The median price fell to $217,000, a drop of 0.3 percent from the price a year ago. The fall in sales in March was bigger than had been expected and it dashed hopes that housing was beginning to mount a recovery after last year's big slump. That slowdown occurred after five years in which sales of both existing and new homes had set records. David Lereah, chief economist at the Realtors, attributed the big drop in part to bad weather in February, which discouraged shoppers and meant that sales that closed in March would be lower. Existing home sales are counted when the sales are closed. Lereah said that the troubles in mortgage lending were also playing a significant part in depressing sales. Lenders have tightened standards with the rising delinquencies in mortgages especially in the subprime market, where borrowers with weak credit histories obtained their loans. There was weakness in every part of the country in March. Sales fell by 10.9 percent in the Midwest. They were down 9.1 percent in the West, 8.2 percent in the Northeast and 6.2 percent in the South. "The negative impact of subprime is considerable," Lereah said. "I expect sales to be sluggish in April, May and June." Lereah said he didn't expect a full recovery in housing until 2008. He predicted that sales of existing homes would drop by about 3 percent this year with the decline in sales of new homes an even steeper 15 percent. He said that the median price for homes sold in 2007 would fall by 1 percent to 3 percent, which would be the first price decline for an entire year on the Realtors' records, which go back four decades. The steep slump in housing over the past year has been a major factor slowing the overall economy. It has subtracted around 1 percentage point from growth since mid-2006.