***Now that the media has torn down the real estate market, its time to build it back up. Thats the American way. We did it with Pete Rose, Martha Stewart, and so many others. Now its the housing market. House Sales Up 7% in Va.: Prices Also Rise, but Homes Aren't Moving As Fast As a Year Ago Source: Richmond Times-Dispatch Publication date: March 31, 2007 By Carol Hazard, Richmond Times-Dispatch Mar. 31--HOUSE SALES IN VIRGINIA -- and the Richmond area -- were up 7 percent through February from a year ago. Prices are rising, too, hitting nearly $263,000 last month in the Richmond area, according to figures released yesterday by the Virginia Association of Realtors. That doesn't mean the market is returning to the good old days -- of a year ago, when houses sold within a month. The house that Brian and Ellen Shepard just sold in North Richmond could still be on the market if they hadn't gotten serious about fixing it up. The two-story house was listed for $235,000 for more than six months. The Shepards pulled it off the market and had it professionally painted and landscaped. "We thought it looked pretty good before," Ellen Shepard said. New paint in browns, greens and creams, cleared brush and fresh mulch gave the house a fresh look, she said. "It really made a difference." The Shepards received an offer within a week of relisting the house at the same price. They closed on the house last week. "Houses are still selling rapidly if they are in tip-top shape," said Joan Peaslee, the agent who listed the house. "There is not as much gray area or margin for error as there was a couple of years ago," Peaslee said. The market is good but slower, agents say. And it's faster here than anywhere in the state. Houses in the Richmond area were on the market an average 58 days, fewer than any of the 22 areas reporting February figures, according to the Realtors' association. A year ago, it took an average 38 days to sell a house here. Statewide, homes stayed on the market an average 126 days in February, up from 103 a year ago. In Northern Virginia, it took about 108 days to sell a house. In the Dulles area, it took 135; Charlottesville, 110; Williamsburg, 94; and Hampton Roads, 73. The market is balancing out and prices are stabilizing, said VAR President Melanie Thompson of Fredericksburg. "It seems we're back on track for a typical busy spring selling season," she said. Contact staff writer Carol Hazard at chazard@timesdispatch.com or (804) 775-8023.
Here's a challenge for the perma bears. Post a chart of the foreclosure rate over the last 30 years or so, and compare it to today's rate. Not the number of foreclosures...the population is bigger after all than it used to be...I'm talking the percentage...
Gotta love the NAR. Home prices off in San Diego 1 to 2% Thats funny. They manipulate the hell out of stats. Try 15 to 20% in San Diego from the peak.
Your post exhibits that you either don't understand why we think there will be more problems or you don't care. Either way, if you haven't been able to comprehend that foreclosures AREN'T at peak yet, that we believe it will happen in the future, and that there is more at stake than just the percent of foreclosures than previous times I can only say...You can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink.
Not true. I know some folks in ARM mortgages who could refinance them, but since their loan payment won't increase for a while, they are holding off on refinancing so they can continue to save money for the time being...very rational behavior. They have jobs. The rates are low so it won't sting so bad. I think there have always been foreclosures, and there will always be foreclosures. Over the last few to several years, the foreclosure rate was a small fraction of what it has been historically, so the newspaper articles about how it has doubled or quadrupled OVER THE LAST 3 to 5 YEARS, are gibberish. We've been so spoiled, for so long, that a return to normalcy is being treated like a crisis. The historic foreclosures didn't undermine us significantly, and this won't either. So, I'm a proponent of discussing the facts from a historical perspective. Not projections that assume that everyone in an ARM will default. Not "What ifs". Not scare stories, and certainly not sob stories of how some waitress in Hobokin is going to lose her house because she could barely afford it, she lied her ass off to get it, and then lived like the grasshopper (vs. the ant) while she was there. Stories like these sell newspaper, but its not news you can trade on. Heck, for every successful trader, there are 10 unsuccessful ones, yet many folks here do it for a living. Should you sell your computer and get a day job because you read an article about a guy who bet it all on a futures contract and lost? Should we project that since most new traders lose their ass, all of them will and the financial system will come unglued? Of course not. No, I want to discuss facts. SM
SmartMoney, fair enough to discuss facts. But you can't discuss this from a historical perspective because this unique situation has never occurred before.
I guess the thrust of what I'm saying is that (maybe) we have been here before and its not too unique. We had really low interest rates in the 50's, 60's and (IIRCC) the early 70's. Then rates went up and it hurt the market. We've had layoffs in California, and oil busts in Texas. And we've had higher foreclosure rates nationally than the latest data indicates. Admittedly, we've never been so entrenched in a fiat currency, but that tends to help the housing market, not hinder it. Because this thread is about the housing market bottoming, I'm here looking for real information...good data about it. Right now, most everyone thinks things will get worse. Maybe they will, but if so many people believe it will get worse, and are liquidating now instead of waiting...then maybe, it really is as low as it will go. And if you think interest rates will go up, as I do, and it will get harder to buy a house because of the media sensation, as I do, then this may be the best time to get a house because payments (a function of rates) may not go much lower and purchasing terms will get more rigid. SM
This isn't a bottom...no way. The ARM resets haven't even started. You have to look at more than historical macros. This is very unique. Read this and tell me if you still have any assumptions that this might be a bottom: http://www.billcara.com/CS Mar 12 2007 Mortgage and Housing.pdf Cheers.
***I'm snipping out the non-home stuff from this article. When everyone agrees that the market is improving, its too late to buy at the bottom**** Stocks Surge on Home Sales Data Tuesday April 3, 12:27 pm ET By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer Stocks Surge on National Association of Realtors Sales Data, Falling Oil Prices NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks surged Tuesday on signs of an improving housing market, with falling oil prices contributing to the rally. The Dow Jones industrials gained more than 115 points. The National Association of Realtors' index for pending sales of existing homes increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.7 percent to 109.3 in February from a reading of 108.5 in January. The index was 8.5 percent below its level of a year earlier, but stronger than the market had been expecting. The data reassured investors that the housing sector, while weak, is not being pummeled by the struggling subprime mortgage sector. Fears that mortgage problems will spill over into the rest of the economy have been a big factor behind the market's volatility of the past several weeks, and the uptick in sales came as a pleasant surprise. "That says people are getting mortgages, people are buying houses, people have incomes, jobs, all that good stuff," said Kim Caughey, equity research analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group. "You'd never go out and buy a house if you think you're going to get laid off. Consumers are optimistic about the future, and as we all know, the consumer drives this economy." Wall Street was also relieved that crude oil prices (snip) In addition, investors awaited reports on sales from the nation's automakers, (snip) (snip) Homebuilders rose after the rise in pending home sales. Pulte Homes rose 77 cents, or 2.9 percent, to $27.10; KB Home rose $1.23, or 2.9 percent, to $43.11; and Toll Brothers Inc. rose 68 cents, or 2.5 percent, to $27.89. Home lenders also got a boost, after many of them fell a day earlier when New Century Financial Corp. filed for bankruptcy protection. Accredited Home Lenders, a mortgage bank, said late Monday that it opened a $500 million credit line with a large commercial bank and renewed a $600 million borrowing arrangement with an investment bank. The stock rose $1.89, or 22.3 percent, to $10.38. (snip) Investors are also treading with more confidence toward the first quarter earnings season, given that there have been fewer profit warnings from companies than many anticipated. "Nothing really happened last week and it seems, knock on wood, that nothing's really happening this week either," Caughey said. "When economies are softer than anticipated, companies get a lot of negative suprises. It's way too early to say this definitely, but perhaps the economy isn't slowing as rapidly as envisioned." The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 8.99, or 1.12 percent, at 812.21. (snip) Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average rose 1.27 percent. Britain's FTSE 100 was up 0.80 percent, Germany's DAX index was up 1.56 percent, and France's CAC-40 was up 1.18 percent. New York Stock Exchange: http://www.nyse.com Nasdaq Stock Market: http://www.nasdaq.com
That document is dated March 12th. How long do you think it took them to compile it before publishing? Its good info, but when I skimmed it, it looked like most of the data was no more current than end of the year stuff. Seems like all the information has been discounted into the market. I think everyone agrees that the housing market doesn't compare well to the Cinderella market of the last few years. From that context, going to a "normal" or "slightly sluggish" market would (and did) signal a sell-off for the home builders and what not. But show me something new. SM