Usually don't post stuff about California since its an island unto itself, but... Housing Starts Pick Up Source: Oakland Tribune Publication date: March 29, 2007 By Eve Mitchell In the first two months of the year, single-family home-building activity in the East Bay and Peninsula picked up a bit while California saw a big decline from a year ago, said an industry report released Wednesday. Builders pulled 750 single-family housing permits in January and February in the East Bay, up 5 percent from the same period last year, according to the California Building Industry Association. The San Francisco metro area, which includes San Mateo County, had 99 single-family housing permits in January and February, a 10 percent increase. But overall it's still a slowing housing market. Statewide, 13,007 single-family housing permits were pulled, a 31 percent drop from a year ago. Builders are scaling back production to focus on selling excess inventory, said Alan Nevin, the association's chief economist. It's too early to say whether the East Bay's year-to-year improvement for single-family home building activity is here to stay, said Joseph Perkins, president of the Home Builders Association of Northern California. Nevin agreed, saying "March and April will really tell the tale for the whole year." East Bay single-family housing starts declined 29 percent from 2005 to 2006. Perkins said the East Bay is faring better than California. "We don't see the kind of precipitous decline we see at the state level in the East Bay in terms of single-family (homes), and that's encouraging. It also speaks to the fact that demand is still there," Perkins said. Just ask KB Home. Its new-home sales in Danville, San Ramon and the San Jose region were up 15 percent ina three-month period ending Feb. 28 compared with the same quarter a year ago, said Marc Burnstein, vice president of sales and marketing for KB's Bay Area division. As a result, KB has pulled more single-family permits in the first part of 2007 than last year, he said. "We are very strong in Danville and San Ramon. Sales activity has improved tremendously in those areas. Future permits are typically driven by sales," Burnstein said. But San Joaquin County, which attracted a lot of entry-level home- building activity before the market started cooling in 2005, did not fare as well, the report showed. The county saw a decline in both single-family and multifamily starts issued for apartments, condos and townhouses. There were 384 single-family starts, a 37 percent drop, and 46 multifamily starts, a 45 percent decline. While the East Bay and San Francisco metro area bucked California's downward trend for single-family starts, the regions were in line with a 37 percent statewide decline in multifamily permits. However, January and February of last year had an unusually high number of multifamily starts. Perkins said the numbers don't tell the whole story. "They are a little behind. From what I hear builders telling me ... I expect a modest uptick in numbers in the month of March and as we move into the second quarter of this year. There should be moderate improvement from the first quarter in both single family and multifamily in the East Bay and San Francisco" metro area, he said. (c) 2007 Oakland Tribune. Provided by ProQuest Information and Learning. All rights Reserved
Guess they are finishing the building of the last wave of written and passed through ARm's and such. Give it a year or two or three lol and go buy them back!
This all is like deja vu all over again ( to quote yogi Berra) Take all the stories and all the stats about RE and then think back to stock market in o1' and 02'....its almost identical and the so called 'experts' look for any thing they can hang their hat on....I still will never forget this on syndicated 'stock expert' actually telling listeners to BUY as much EMC as they can every time it dips below90....at 80...he said its just a market shifting...at 70 he told people to double up! ....around 9.00 he stopped taking about EMC:eek:
Yeah...the tide has turned fast. Just in the media alone it was like they went from being total deniers that there's a problem that's more than just "subprime" to cautiously observant. As frustrating as I find trying to argue with bulls...it's been a good laugh because not one of them has yet produced anything to the effect showing that the housing market is going to collapse like 100lbs freshman who just drank a bottle of Cuervo. It's going to be uglier than they're saying.
According to economist Ed Yardeni,recession is unlikely. But one of the very best economists out there today, Ed Yardeni, president of New York-based Yardeni Research, said recession talk âhas been brewingâ among analysts this year, and Greenspan simply brought it front and center. Yardeni expects the economy will rebound to 3 percent growth by yearâs end as consumers continue to spend, making a recession ânot possibleâ this year.''There's going to be more and more talk about the economy being weak and the prospects for the Fed lowering interest rates,'' Yardeni told the Los Angeles Times of Mar. 1. ''My view is so far the economy continues to demonstrate that it's remarkably resilient, with consumer spending and unemployment numbers still looking good,'' he said. Moreover, in his Feb. 12 report Yardeni wrote: âIn the January 29th Morning Briefing, I wrote, âItâs getting closer to showtime for the sub-prime mortgage market. It may soon blow up. The question is, will it matter to the economy? I donât think so, but we should soon find out.â
Blast I did not say i agree with Yardeni,just thought a different viewpoint from an economist in Yardeni's league would be good for conversation. Yardeni is very astute, his market predictions more often than not turn out to be correct. I recall when he was calling for the Dow to go up to 10000 from the then 2800 or so,everyone said he was off base in 91,guess he was on base eh! Now this time is still up for grabs as to Yardeni being on or off base but the man is very bright and his words should be viewed as a possible alternative to the talking heads moribund view of the subprime fiasco. In short,use it for a conversation piece ,the view of the other possible outcome of subprime. Yardeni's opinion for the record is not one I agree with. Lloyd
That was my point though...there is nothing to support the fact that the crisis won't deepen to a recession level. There are many indicators showing that it will. My point was simply that I have yet to find a bull that uses any serious facts to back up their statements that there is going to be no problem. Wasn't accusing you of anything...just asking if that was a retort. thanks.