I'm glad I hung on. Looks like we did a retest of the low and things should be good from here. What's a safe entry to go long?
A "measured-move" objective in the SPY was just reached at 94.60 The first move up was 5.40 Add that to the intra-day afternoon "pullback" low at 89.20 and you get: 94.60 Bingo!
950 is minor resistance from yesterday, so I would either wait for a pullback to near the opening range high of today (920), or buy on a breakout above 950 (e.g. 955-960+). A safe stop is around 885-890, next reasonable stop is about 908. So you have about 35 points downside here. I would also point out the outperformance of the nasdaq - that may be a better long here and I have about half my longs in NQ futures. Energy and commodities by comparison were a bit disappointing. I would stick with ES/NQ. Is it just me, or was it damn tough to stay long today after those early lows? That mid-session pullback almost got me out, it got quite close to my stop.
We were discussing setting stops at what 885 I forget and I looked over at the chart and ES had blown right through that. I figured we were so close to 837 that I may as well say in. I agree with NQ being stronger. I'm also in ES so I think you're right adding some NQ would be better. I'll study the chart and look for the same S/R points that you pointed out for ES. Thanks for sharing, I learn a lot from your posts.
If you mean by pull back, the bottom of around 11:30AM, that was god sent for me. I got in with FOUR times the normal size. Today I made 250 NDX points (100+ on one normal size, and 150=3*50 taken early on trim size back to normal). My best day (or close to best) in recent memory! PS: + nailing of exact bottom which is PRICELESS! I should start charging those free loaders on my blog.
Don't give your Academy Awards speech just yet unless you are retiring from trading... today! After so many years it never ceases to amaze me how guys still have their egos in the game. There is no doubt that posts like this are always precursors to blowing out one's account(s)! That feeling of bullet-proof is always (not just sometimes) but ALWAYS the kiss of death!
Update. Today we are down quite a bit on globex, and Europe went back to unchanged, filling the opening gap, and then bounced hard off that gap fill. This gives a potentially interesting setup. If today is going to be a big down day, Europe would need to move *below* the unchanged level. If you get a big gap up overnight, then it fills the gap, bounces hard, then trades to new lows and moves to decently negative (e.g. 0.5% down or more), that is a very bearish pattern. However, a gap fill and large rebound is typically a bullish pattern, *especially* if the market then moves beyond the opening highs. So far this looks like a classic downside test in an uptrend. ES overnight is quite a bit below the close yesterday. You could enter now and place a stop below the globex lows 908. If the uptrend from yesterday stays intact, the market should at least retest yesterday's close and/or highs, and quite possibly break above them. So there is a nice daytrade, in addition to a longer-term trade with small downside and a target of at least 1025-1075 (107-157 points upside). With such a close stop you could be faked out, however the reward looks attractive enough to be worth a punt.
Just pulled back about 50% of the rally from the opening lows. This is another chance to buy, a stop for this add can be placed at today's lows.