This market trades so bearish - I thought it would bounce but can't deny the price action. Oil threatening new lows too. 875 now hit. Not looking good at all so if anyone followed me here just a reminder I am totally *out*.
Crude just broke to $71.25 on the unexpected build in oil inventories ( +5.6mm and gasoline at +6.9mm barrels ). Crude -$3.28 That just crushed the SPX again down to 871.50
Last night I was thinking that due to the low volume of the decline, we could have even lower volume today and have a doji marking the bottom. I didn't think the previous lows would be touched, and I was confident that they wouldn't be broken. So far the nasdaq has taken out its previous low but has bounced back up. The S&P & Dow are holding above their lows going into the lunchtime break. It looks to me that the S&P is on track for higher volume than yesterday but short of the volume from the previous low. This is good, retesting a low on lower volume is a bullish sign. Retesting a low on lower volume and then closing above the low is even more bullish. That's what we have right now with the nasdaq. I'm thinking that things are not looking so bad here. I think it's normal that the markets went down today, I think people are waiting for the perfect moment to go long. Why go long early? Wait and see how low it goes. So far I'm optimistic. If the decline in the S&P really was due to oil, then we'd have a few stocks driving it down. As long as the majority are neutral or even bearish, that would be positive divergence and again bullish. I'm pretty new at this so please feel free to point out any flaws in my logic. I admit I'm biased because I'm already long. I'm waiting for a good confirmation before I add to my position. The question is what would be good? A close above open? Cutten - you mentioned buying calls. Le'ts say you got the confirmation you want to see.. how would you go long? Can you explain how you'd buy calls?
5-waves down into the volume floor, according to "Mup". As posted in the Technical Analysis Forum. See chart below.
VIX spiked 20% intraday then this rally broke the pattern of lower highs and lows. I've got moderately long again with stops trailing fairly close (880). *If* this can mount a rally into a green close, then we may have some upside into next week, but it's so volatile I am keeping a tight leash on positions.