A run on gold coming?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by peilthetraveler, Nov 15, 2008.

  1. arab investors have always been wrong timed on everything


    they didn't exactly make their money from investing in the first place, doods just selling some black stuff from the ground.


    What makes you think they'll be right buying gold here :)
     
  2. nice post susansah , but come on now, chinese investors , espically their soverign funds, are the worst investors on the planet.



    BX ,blackstone, in for the deal @ $29 ? $6 now.


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    If anything these iran/chinese posts signfy gold might fall down to $400

    just to fk with them :)
     
  3. Good point, but for the last few years its been america that has been wrong about everything. And it just makes you wonder, if we are wrong about everything financial in the last few years and someone is doing something different that us....doesnt that make THEM right if WE are the ones that have been screwing up?

    Even though arabs have been wrong timed on everything, they still might be right on this one....remember the old saying...even a broken clock is right twice a day. Maybe this is the time they are right?
     
  4. Why not evaluate the situation based on its merits? And not the historic performance of doom sayers?

    All Countries are inflating the shit out of their currency and handing it over to banks.

    Banks are withholding that cash from borrowers, thus fractional reserve expansion of money supply has not taken root. Nor has traditional product inflation, as money is hoarded.

    If and when that debased money gets into circulation, exchange rates might stay current, but commodities and gold through the roof.

    When banks start turning a profit, and quit hoarding, look out.

    Thats my best guess.

    Japan is a good micro-historical example. They inflated, but consumers were so debt laden, cheap money wasn't exploded through fractional lending. Further, many of their banking houses only recovered recently. Third, the effect on global inflation was pronounced. The carry-trade helped fuel asset inflation across global markets during 1990's and 2000.

    Whatever happens this time, will be much larger by several orders of magnitude. And it can't be good.

    There is no good that comes from bailouts and debasement. None.

    So what happens next??
     
  5. When a dam breaks, it usually starts with some cracks, that become leaks, the leaks get bigger and bigger, and then it all falls apart.

    There was an article saying the Saudi's had bought $3.5 to $3.7 billion of gold (about 140 tons) in the past couple weeks.

    http://archive.gulfnews.com/articles/08/11/13/10259112.html

    http://arabianmoney.net/2008/11/13/saudi-arabia-buys-35bn-of-gold-in-two-weeks/
     
  6. Well said. We can't know for sure when the deflation will turn to raging inflation, and gold may still fall some more before that happens. But I have to think averaging into a long position, even if it moves lower in the immediate future, will pay off handsomely sometime over the next few years. Same with oil.
     
  7. ok, i'm bullish on gold.

    but, what happens in 09/10 when there is so much government debt out there and not enough investing dollars? yields go up making gold unattractive and gold drops like it did in the early 80s. but who knows what happens by the spring of 2009, i'm thinking gold spikes to say 1500-2000.

    but then those higher yields could mean a deep global recession extending into 2012-2014. gonna be an interesting year next year me thinks...
     
  8. Listen to Jim Rogers in the other thread. He said the IMF is being forced to sell its gold to come up with cash to keep banks solvent.

    Saudi's may have bought their stockpile from the IMF - and the IMF still has plenty more.

    He said this could possibly drive gold down to $500 with that much gold coming on the market, but once the selling stops, it will rocket.

    I would feel more comfortable buying gold over $900 or under $600 than buying it here.

    Either buy it cheap or wait for a confirmation of a move.
     
    #10     Nov 15, 2008