I don't know how you trade and I could be wrong, but from what you said I assume that you add size when you are losing and quit trading when you are ahead and call it a day. If that's the case, you are lying to yourself. If you average down"Martingale", dont't average down more than once, and keep your size consistence, see how the result is, track your winrate and R:R, to see if you can produce a positive expectancy.
No, just the opposite. I didn't add size, kept size fixed. Stopped when I became profitable and also quit when I had several losses in a row.
It is sort of like Martingale: you trade until you win and quit. Since the market is Markov, today has no memory of yesterday (mostly). Today the market doesn't know I won yesterday so I have equal chance again. Am I making any sense?
That is my conclusion. However, my thesis is, in daily stock price movement, there is usually a drift term on top of GBM due to "perturbation" like news etc. So, @orbit23 is correct, context is critical?
But you just don’t know on a consistent basis. Where is the edge? My conclusion is if everyone or most people can see something it’s not a true edge.
After spending a year experimenting with day trading stocks, I have decided to stop. It has nothing to do with profitability, rather it is because of the following: 1. It is just a day job. I am glued to the screen everyday. Life is too short for that. 2. It feels like gambling. I have been profitable but entry and exit are based solely on gut feel. I think it is just guessing and I am fooled by randomness. I will continue to position trade and trade options. But unlike day trading those trades are infrequent and allow me to maintain a very flexible schedule & the money is good.