A Relic Trading On Feeling

Discussion in 'Journals' started by QuasWexExort, Jul 14, 2017.

  1. I don't know the exact figures, and don't really care.

    They don't mean much to me as distribution is not balanced/random in intraday trading. For example, a coin flip is unbiased at the next toss. A trade is not to me. If I average 65% win rate trade in the long run, I certainly do not expect 65% on the next trade after a loss. Your emotion is depleted. You might have a wrong bias in the last trade that you try again. You might've flipped bias when you should've kept it. The long term 65% means nothing to me on the next trade.

    But if I had to guess I would put it around 60% and 1:1.6.
     
    #41     Jul 21, 2017
  2. Experience, no substitute for that.
     
    #42     Jul 21, 2017
  3. Gotcha

    Gotcha

    Excellent, thanks. I know what you mean that going forward there should be no expectation of what happened before, but I was just asking to get a feel for where your stops and target expectations. Sometimes people claim over an 80% win rate on something like a 1:3, which would be insane. Of course, some people even make money with a just a 20% win rate and hit it out of the park when they do win.
     
    #43     Jul 21, 2017
  4. I was pondering this when doing errands this afternoon. Hybridization and to what extent it has affected my trading. I maintain an advanced AI bot which largely runs unattended (took a year+ to laboriously correct errors) and I trade a few Futures e-minis discretionary (segregated accounts).

    I looked up how many times I have made certain queries, mostly what side of the market the AI recons it is on etc. Turns out I "peeked" into it about once every 6 days.

    There are two pretty savage drops caused by poor calls in the attached CL and ES combined equity curve, these coincide with:

    a. Me being ill (2)
    b. Me moving home (1)
    c. My bot being offline/updating for both.

    I have a pretty good second opinion and am effectively a hybrid AI/human trader already to some degree.

    elite attach 2.PNG
     
    #44     Jul 21, 2017
  5. Final update for this account as this account is being closed and rolled into a new account as IB has set up new Australian entity.

    Following the establishment of Interactive Brokers Australia Pty Ltd (IB Australia), who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence, number 453554, Australian residents maintaining an account with Interactive Brokers LLC (IB LLC) will have their account transferred to IB Australia as IB LLC intends to cease business in Australia.

    Hopefully regulations are sorted out and we get to trade spot FX as well.

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    Took a hit 2 weeks ago that ended my 28th net positive week streak. Thankfully was able to recover it the week after with some big wins.
     
    #45     Sep 26, 2017
  6. I make 10% on my account a week, and also don't post a single live trade here.
    We must be related
     
    #46     Sep 26, 2017
    themickey likes this.
  7. dec31.png

    Rest of year
     
    #47     Jan 2, 2018
  8. 08q1.jpg

    fs.png


    2018 first quarter and since inception from FS. Definitely an outlier quarter from the volatility with much larger than expected returns and drawdowns.

    This journal is damn boring I know, I'm no writer. I may give YouTube or other mediums a try out. Just something to do when I'm bored and still want to do something trading related.
     
    #48     Mar 30, 2018