was it arbitrary decision or was it based on any systematic approach ? i'm asking as you mentioned in the other thread that you keep discussing your method in this one..
Normally the initial target is the previous low or high. But with QLD price just kind of chopped around for a while and I figured I might as well sell it now. If it keeps going up then I sold too early, but I don't think about that and am looking for the next trade now.
I might use UPRO for the next trade. SSO is a 2x weighted SPY, and URPO is 3x weighted. The dividend is pretty small, though.
Hey, I like your threads but I have a question for you. I'm pretty sure you have close to or over $500,000-$1,000,000 capital based on your trades in other threads. Does it bother you that since november you've only made a couple grand? To me the most worrisome part is not only did you make a couple grand, but you were also on the right side of the trade since november, long. In my humble opinion you should either consider adding, opening with a bigger position, or something. In 5 months you were long one of the best rallies in recent memory, and still only made a couple grand off a $1MM account. There's no reason you shouldn't have made $100k-$200k during this rally. This is really not meant to be an attack against you or anything I'm just wondering if you are considering a way to get more skin in the game, or if you are okay with making a couple grand on such a large amount of capital during one of the best rallies we've had all decade, while you were long..in a leveraged long etf none the less
That's a very valid question. The drawback of trading this way is that sometimes I have no position or a small position during a big rally. Since I have no idea that a rally is coming, I don't know to buy a big position. The reason I don't add to winning positions is that that raises my average cost and makes it so that a smaller move a against me can turn my win into a loss. Since I never know when price is going to reverse, I never know when that's going to happen. The flip side to this is that when everyone else is having big losses because price keeps going down, I am adding more and more, and when price reverses and goes back up I have a big win. I'm not trying to say this the best, or the only, way to trade, just that it's the only way I can do it. If I knew where price was going to go I would take a bigger position in the right direction. Here's more info about why I don't add to winners with some examples.
Adaptation plays an enormous role in trading, and it is not just direction, it plays a role in position management too. You can only add to a winning trade when you are expecting superb momentum, the kind of momentum that would allow the close trail of a tight stop. There is a place to add to losers and there is place to add to winners, in fact, there is even a place for both, it's all in the traders ability to adapt to ever changing market conditions.