No, as I stated above, I meant predict. "Following" doesn't work because the trend that everyone likes to follow can reverse at any point. Let's assume you have defined some conditions that allow you to label a trend the moment it begins. You can now say "we previously were not in a trend but now we are in a trend." That would require a condition of: "because we have just entered into a trend (defined by some parameters), price is now more likely to continue in this current direction rather than reversing." Put more simply, it requires being able to say, "because price did x, it is now more likely to do y than to do z." Trends are great in hindsight, but not in real time. Therefore, I meant predict. If I had access to such knowledge I would be opening positions in the correct direction and making money every day. Because I cannot predict price, I cannot trade in that way. If any of you can predict price, I look forward to reading your journals with live calls. Until then, everyone is just trying to follow a trend that they think they have defined in real time. And it works great sometimes. The rest of the time you get chopped out. Losses + commissions tend to equal about neutral, or slightly negative PnL over time. The problem lies in the fact that your "trend" can reverse at any time. Defining the trend is half the problem, and if you manage to define it, you have no idea how long it will continue. I welcome a trend following journal that proves me wrong.
Good news. QLD paid a dividend for 4th quarter, payable Jan 3. According to Proshares records this is the first time it's done so since 2008. I wonder if there's any special reason. I had been wondering why QLD hasn't been paying one, whilst other 2x ETFs like DDM and SSO pay one every quarter.