If I toss a coin. What it the chance that I get 10 consecutive heads (or tail)? Is it (1/2)^10=0.00097? Many people think, if you see 9 consecutive heads, than the chance seeing next one is head is extremely small. And you should bet tail. But some people said, the chance is still 1/2 because they are independent. I am getting confused. Some math wiz bother to explain?