an example of really powerful quote "Whatever the mind of man can conceive and believe, it can achieve. " W. Clement Stone http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/w/w_clement_stone.html
So you do admit then that someone on another planet can predict the market's future direction. I bet you if the SEC investigated they would find unusual call or put buying coming from Martian accounts or overseas funds with links to Jupiter. Those aliens can not only predict the market direction well but are great at risk management.
Well said. But far too many people here on ET are running around listening to a TON of NOISE to know the difference.
You don't have to necessarily predict the market to make money, that is outright directional trading. You sound like someone who doesn't want to do his homework on the Markets. YOU keep getting good advice from good traders but you want the grail, good luck with that !!
""Nobody on this planet can predict the market's future direction. Not science, mathematics, nothing..." PERIOD" People do it everyday, maybe not the same people everyday but people do it. When I'm focused I did it about three times a month. Had to be patient but I proved it to myself I could.
again, another semantical wank with the word "predict" nobody can predict WITH ANYWHERE NEAR 100% certainty what the market will do. people can make positive expectancy "predictions" based on statistically valid setups. for example... i have a setup that when proper conditions set up, will give me approx. 70% change of a 10 pt move with a 10 pt stop. i don't KNOW the market will move 10 pts in my favor. it's not a "prediction" in that sense. i do KNOW that (n=over 200) there is a 70% chance that it will do so. no form of analysis - technical, fundamental, etc. can predict in the sense of certainty. however, that;s not needed for successful trading.
I've tried three times now to write a good thorough answer to this question but have stopped and started over each time. The problem is, its too complex to explain. My experience of just watching hundreds of days and trying things and learning from mistakes has led me to understand pretty well how the mkt moves intraday. Thats not to say I always know whats going to happen next (I def dont), b/c there is a lot of noise of course, but I am pretty good at determining what the mkts next move will be if certain other things happen first (again too compex to explain). My brain just sees certain situations and I react. Cant ever underestimate the need for good old fashioned experience. My comp setup is simple, a 5 min chart, a 20 MA and I watch price action and volume associated with certain moves. I also have a tool which shows me pro-rated volume and it helps me gauge sentiment intrabar. Then I watch the DOM and pick my spots.
What about the Jack Hershey channels? Have you given them up? I trade that method now and it has improved my consistency dramatically. I only do forest level trading though. My question for you Steve is that have you found the same consistency in futures that you had with stocks? Thanks.