Why are you so sure about the opposite? If it were so simple everybody would be millionaire at least. I hear on a daily base how you could make a lot of money in past, but if I ask to tell me when this opportunity will occur in future again, everybody is silent. They will tell it later, after it occured.
Many people who have their retirement savings and don't consider themselves very investment-savvy would simply follow their financial advisors. Or read online that the most common way to invest is a "60/40 stock/bond portfolio". Having followed this advice that group of people would have about 9% of annual return in the last 5 years. As example: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0002&FundIntExt=INT
Every day all over the world investment magazines give tips, most of them are in hindsight bad. It is not because you can show 1 example that you proved anything. I can also show 1, or even 100 examples of bad advice. A very good test to do is: take the retunrs of all hedgefunds over the last decade and calculate the average. Watch also how many can stay positive during this whole period. You will see that it is not as simple as you describe it. https://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2014/04/24/why-the-average-investors-investment-return-is-so-low/#33fae5ac111a "According to the latest 2014 release of Dalbar's Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior (QAIB), the average investor in a blend of equities and fixed-income mutual funds has garnered only a 2.6% net annualized rate of return for the 10-year time period ending Dec. 31, 2013. The same average investor hasn’t fared any better over longer time frames. The 20-year annualized return comes in at 2.5%, while the 30-year annualized rate is just 1.9%. Wow! The average investor exclusively investing in just fixed-income funds has had an even worse experience. The annualized return is 0.6% over 10 years, 0.7% over 20 years, and 0.7% over 30 years. Just who is the “average investor?” The QAIB states the average investor refers to “the universe of all mutual fund investors whose actions and financial results are restated to represent a single investor.” This universe would include small and large investors as well as professionally advised and self-advised investors."
@Mtrader you are taking this thread far of from the intentions of the topic starter. Let me quote his opening post: My responses were meant to show that longer term investors are able to fulfil this requirement. I guess that that was not what he had in mind when he asks about "successful traders".
A little bit of each. None of the responses accurately describes me. To the extent that human/institutional behavior is predictable, I may have a few edges. They have continued to work over time. I do adjust to market conditions. No need to push anything to the max.
To be specific, great "retail," traders making hundred of thousands a year to millions are about as rare as billionaires are. Think for a second, you've spent thousands of hours studying, analyzing, and breathing the market. You finally find your edge that can make you rich, so long as you've got the capital available to execute(which excludes some). Would you share your edge with another? The answer to that is 100 out of 100 a resounding NO, unless your family or helping me make money.