A no-brainer day!

Discussion in 'Trading' started by candletrader, May 8, 2002.

  1. I usually just chuckle and move along but for some reason I feel compelled to comment.
    Why are so many of you on this forum so over sensitive and touchy? I can understand the touchiness on shameless spam from a poster who's account is 30mins old but Candle isn't that new here. So he makes an obvious comment. Whoopie doo.

    Was anyone who made money today by reading the AH and pre-market not thinking that to themselves today after the close?

    I could find 10 silly posts here in about 2 mins without trying that noone bothered to comment on yet here's all this animosity on this one thread.

    I got smacked on a multi-day swingtrade I was short on today yet wasn't so touchy as to channel my irritation at one jovial poster here.

    Get a grip, have a beer, kick your dog, and gear up to take back some money from the market tomorrow.
    #21     May 8, 2002
  2. Magna

    Magna Administrator

    Spencer has some good points that Candle might want to address. Also, since Brandon did make a prediction before the market opened, and Candle has compared his foresight to Brandon's, maybe Candle would like to make some no-brainer predictions before the fact? :confused:
    #22     May 8, 2002

  3. Can't resist putting in my .02 (gosh aren't u guys surprised):

    I think Cisco has everything to do with this particular rally. BUT that's only because it was a catalyst that started the chain of dominoes. The catalyst could have been anything else. Kind of like Bill Gates is the king of software, but if he had never been born Larry Ellison would be geek king, or Scott McNealy would be, or whatever. Events are fungible. If A craps out, B steps in, etc.

    Events are constantly happening, the market focuses on the big ones and sometimes on the little ones, overall it does what it wants to do but the event still plays an integral part in the short term and even shapes the next day's or week's or month's activity. What if Cisco's numbers had sucked? We might have been scraping the bottom of the barrel today. Or it might have been another slop day. When a marble is at the top of a hill a gust of wind can blow it in either direction, etc.

    So the catalyst IS important in that it is necessary for things to get rolling- like the stone flipping down the snowbank that starts the snowball that creates the avalanche- but at the same time it is not important ultimately, because the catalyst is just fulfilling a need that has already been created and is waiting to be triggered. If an event fits the general thesis and directional bias, then the echo is amplified into a roar. If an event is counter to the general thesis and against the prevailing bias, then it creates a short term blip and feedback type chop n' slop. But no one knows in advance what is going to do what to what. This is why the reason "why" doesn't matter at all, it only matters what happens. What is, is, what ain't, ain't. And prediction is a collossal waste of time.
    #23     May 8, 2002
  4. You did a lot better than me. Nibbled at SEPR and it ran up on me over half a point at the close. Here's your head handed back to you Elvis! Huh? Thank you very much...

    It was such a day when even the caca goes up :p But SEPR has been good to me so far, being in a death dive and all; I was in just a bit early that's all :D

    Tomorrow is another day...
    #24     May 8, 2002
  5. Fitz


    Like I was saying, good to hear that you bought the open and sold at the close/top. :p

    As for you insinuating that I didn't see this as a no-brainer opportunity like yourself. I agree. I had no idea what the market was going to do today. All I can do is react to the charts. Nothing more.

    I certainly had no idea that I should just buy the open, go to sleep, wake up and sell at the close as you put it. Wait a min, sure I knew this. Probably at the same time you did, after 4 PM. :eek:

    Spencer's post pretty much summed it up though.
    #25     May 8, 2002
  6. Spencer and Fitz:

    I think you guys are just allergic to smug smarminess (or is it smarmy smugness)?

    I have the same problem, though my reactions aren't as bad as they used to be. I wish one of these drug companies would come up with a pill to pop or something.
    #26     May 8, 2002
  7. spencer


    “thinking that to themselves”… Yup, that pretty much
    sums up my point.
    #27     May 8, 2002
  8. Kymar


    Was unbelievably stupid today. Fell into the classic "s/r trader gets killed on trend day" trap.

    First, I had software problems (typical sign of an easy money trend day - software or internet always gets hinky when there's something mega-tradable going on, no? - but I missed it...), which forced me to log off/log on, set things up again, made me feel like I had to rush. I decided to trade long on a big gap down on EXPE – it really SHOULD have bounced under today's conditions - dammit! Instead, it melted through support levels like the one stock being rationally evaluated today... After one re-entry, I got stopped out, but accidentally left half the position on... then had to get out after an even worse loss...

    I then tried to short one of the MANY gaps up in major downtrend type candidates, and it wasn’t even such a bad trade – though only a scalp at best,when , as we all know, the real money was long today - but, in switching workspaces and rushing to make the entry, I got confused, shorted BRCM when I meant to be shorting EMLX (they were trading at similar prices) - thought for a second it was my datafeed screwing up when the price seemed to "jump," and had to bite down on another loss.

    So, within half an hour, I was down pretty big, worse due to stupid mistakes and internet glitches. Maybe my discombobulation had something to do with the weird stubbornness that then took me over. Also wasn't helped by the “failure” of my favorite indicator – average of market thrust (based on upvol*advancing vs downvol*declining) – to register the strength of the rally convincingly. I think the indicationss were skewed by the big gap – an issue I’ll need to investigate further.

    Anyway, I was now in angry bear mode on the best day for the bulls in months... though I had even “called” the move – breakout from a falling wedge, with eventual retracement almost precisely to targets. I was just incapable of playing it. I kept on thinking that the thrust wasn’t really there, the TIKQs and TICKs weren’t really there, the longer-term downtrend was too strong, the news at the basis of the rally was too transparently stupid, it would be another gap-and-stall like the CIEN abandoned baby of over a year ago, with the good plays hard to find… thought thought thought… so, instead of just trading with the obvious trend, put a basket together or play pullbacks for upward re-tests and follow-through, as I’d intended if the day unfolded as the long-awaited bounce day, I kept on looking for the stall, took every possible indication of a broken trend as THE indication, and spent almost the entire rest of the day short on a couple of relatively weak small caps, with a few intermittent losses on parallel idiotic plays.

    The last comparable day, months ago, I was up 30% in my account in one session. Instead, I ended up having my worst day in months…

    Gawd, I hate myself.
    #28     May 8, 2002
  9. ouch.

    next time we have a day like this, open one eye at 9:30 AM, switch on computer with your big toe (set it up at the foot of your bed), hit "BUY" button and "SNOOZE" button multiple times throughout the day, and at precisely 3:45 pm yawn, stretch, pick your boxers out of your crack, and close all positions right after your bowl of captain crunch at five minutes to the bell.

    p.s. Kymar: it takes balls to admit you got burned on a day when so many are celebrating, u have my respect for that
    #29     May 8, 2002
  10. mrktwiz


    I have to agree with Darkhorse ...I admire your honesty and telling us what can really happen....I too have had days like that......all traders have......keep your head straight....re-load and go get them tommorow!

    Good luck buddy...

    Good trading all.....

    #30     May 8, 2002