Yes, it is obvious... but this is out of the U.S.'s hands; it's China and Xi, and judging by Evergrande, Xi hasn't been subtle! He's been rather heavy-handed, and I think that this is just the beginning. We're on opposite sites of the trade. My risk is my reward, My profit is your loss... and vice-versa. Roll the dice! (Reddit) If Evergrande would be a 13 second video
BABA shorting idea you have, is that because of a belief the Chinese economy will tank dragging BABA down with it? Some believe the US economy will tank because China economy is stronger/better organized than US, or maybe US will tank due to combination of covid and a toppy sharemarket. The one thing in your favour is we are in September/October period, but atm I see only slight headwinds but nothing major negative in the markets. Genuine good luck with your trade, hope it goes your way, I'll be watching but my call is I can't see this being a spectacular crash, you'll be working hard to make money. Shorting appears to have appeal to some, I find shorting to be a mugs game, much more difficult than how it appears on paper.
Evergrande Isn’t China’s ‘Lehman Moment’: It Could Be Worse Than That – OpEd https://www.eurasiareview.com/26092...hman-moment-it-could-be-worse-than-that-oped/ ....................... The total liabilities of Evergrande account for more than double its official debt figure (more than 2 trillion yuan). Evergrande’s financial hole is equivalent to almost a third of Russia’s GDP. Its annual revenues do not reach $70 billion, and it is more than debatable whether those revenues are real, since a relevant part comes from payment commitments whose collection is doubtful. Even if they were real, these revenues are not enough to address the bond maturities, which exceed $250 billion in the short term. ......................
Found this, may help you.... https://seekingalpha.com/article/44...ite-of-what-institutional-investors-are-doing
It's based on Xi's "Common Prosperity" initiative; which to me, is a Machiavellan slap-down of any company that may pose a threat to his regime. Evergrande, TenCent, Alibaba, etc. Thank you.
So, after all this talk, I dumped it and took some profits. I didn't like the volatility, and the way it was moving against me. @themickey your points also spooked me a bit.
I notice the Friday gap completely filled, quite strongly moved today. As mentioned, expect volatility due to where price is near support, going short here I doubt would be plain sailing, even the Evergrande saga is not going to simple move down I doubt.
Thank you for your comments, and I mean it. It was because of you that I took profits, or I might have swung right back into the red... and who knows when it will go green again.