You might have some "help" on Monday. $SPX, $SOX, $NDX, $RUT, $NYA, $W5000, $INDU all inside narrow range daily bars today on below average volume. $W5000 and $INDU also were Doji's.
%% Good downtrend, BABA,YTD, kms; strange banker\ i would want a second banking opinion, most want more than 1 years track record. But i dont know of any banker that would loan for trading, hard enough to get any new business loan..................................BABA is downtrending below50dma\200dma+ has been
My opinion, your BABA short is a lousy trade if you have recently participated. It's a dumb trade because you are very late to the party and it's dumb again because you are trading at some major support points where you are likely to get chopped. There appears to me to be a lot of emotion in this thread about this trade, which indicates to me a kind of noob attitude and possible you have a lot riding on this trade, ie, possibly a large trading position where you are hoping to get fat rich. Again, it then becomes a dumb trade imo, lots of risk, if you succeed you will think your trading methods are improving which is another false theory. There are lots of problems I see in this trade and nothing to crow about. Sorry to come in and rain on your parade, and usually I wouldn't bother to comment. However, seeming you posted, I thought to throw a spanner in against all the positive comments purely to give the discussion some more Amps. (Shock factor) This is what I would have done: Firstly as mentioned you are too late, if you had placed your trade late last year or early this year, yes your timing would have been worth a pat on the back. Secondly, there is nothing wrong placing a trade if you feel the urge, but I would have made it a small position, so small it was not worth mentioning. This way, the bet is not high risk but also on the flip side you don't get to profit much, but the idea is, trading is about numerous small wins, not swinging for the fences looking for a large lottery win. Anyhow, I'm sure the reaction to my comments may fly fierce on ET, but tough, ETers love to short the market, seems like some kind of badge of honour to be a shorter. Ok, flame away boys!
If you you just entered a short, it is at near extremes of lows, not a lot of meat can be expected imo, again, lousy timing.
No flame, appreciate your thoughts, and you make some good points. I'm not crowing, and didn't have a lot riding on the trade. I applied a lot of lessons learned and took the right side. I do believe that BABA has a long way to fall. Most importantly, Fed risk, or "Brrr risk," is less; a Chinese company is not as likely to be hoisted up by QE dollars. 1. The party is heating up. Xi sees big tech as a threat, and he will slap then down. He's a Mao reincarnate. 2. I saw the resistance, and believed that it would punch through, based on Xi's "Common Prosperity" initiative and collateral damage from Evergrande. This is about Xi staying in power. 3. I did make it a small position. Just one round lot, which is small for me. 4. Agreed that the profit is not much, but my style is diversify across multiple ideas, normalize risk, and win 4/7ths, or even 3/5ths of these position. 5. I am not swinging for the fences, I am refining my style with small, accurate, diversified, normalized trades. Last year I swung for the fences and went all-in on a BA trade, and lost 22% of my capital in two days. Never again. In sum, I thought that I made good progress on this trade. It isn't so much about the profit, it's about the game: how I managed my capital, risk, emotion, thesis, and cost-averaging. Profit is a consequence of a good game.
I believe it will punch through to new lows. This is about Xi, self-appointed emperor for life, staying in power. I would not want to be long on BABA right now. Look what he did to Evergrande. BABA gave 15.5B to Common Prosperity... that might be enough cash to get to Xi. There are those who are unhappy with his regime. Some in $BABA are furious and fuming about having to cut a check like that to Winnie the Pooh. That would be like Sleepy Joe forcing Bezos to give $100B to his party... with more asks to come. The scary question is: will he nationalize $BABA, and take it over? Will Congress trust-bust $AMZN?
Agree there is a probability of going lower, however high chance of high volatility. When I read your opening post, at first I couldn't determine whether it was a long or a short, so read it several times. But the gyst I got, you were very pleased with this trade. I still don't believe it's a good trade: 1 Too late 2 You are in a high risk zone 3 Overstretched atm 4 I like to think this way, of all the hundreds of stocks on offer, is this the creme of the bunch.
I agree to both...a little late to the party but could have another $5-$10pts to the downside. I'm just glad I dumped my January calls at $170 for profit when I bought them in the $150's as they're down 60-70%. I have read over the years Alibaba has made poor people in the middle of nowhere progress to middle class like no other. Rice farmers making multiples. I do think Xi will show whose boss but won't wound these companies completely. US investors fund a lot of Chinese companies even if technically they own nothing as they're VIEs. I think Evergrande will get help but not officially to slow such risky behavior. That being said, I'll probably day trade...BABA, NIO and XPEV, next week. NIO for sure if it hits $34 then I think $32.