I like the journal. Can you post how you place your targets, or what your target is when you go in a trade?
Thanks thegazelle. From price's perspective, I don't really impose a 'target' as I enter a trade. A series of calculations (statistical, technical, etc) will eventually funnel into an end result as an indicator that will be checked against a set of parameters. It then serve as the trigger and tell me to close the position either because parameters are met or it has been too long for profit to materialize. The setup of the parameters are based on various scenarios and historical data on the basis of best result that fits my personal risk tolerance level.
Did you consider using the May 147 PUT on this position? The extra time premium helps creates a little less risk. Example: Closing Price on 04-12.....Option.......Current Price..Drawdown ...........2.35.................April 147P.......... .70............ -70% ...........2.85.................May 147P..........1.70........... -40% You can see the added time is a little less painful. Jeff
Usually if the option is more than a week away from expiration (at the time of buying) then I would use the current month options. My intention is not to hold it for more than 4 Trading Days. While it is true that the option from next month offers less risk, it also offer less profit potential if my holding is just a few trading days. As far as draw down, I generally don't look at it on per trade basis. I would focus on how it affects the overall capital/performance. For example, seeing that the risk is higher than average, I would adjust capital per trade downward accordingly. Given the situation I think more test is gonna be needed for my put buyings. LOL~ Thank you Jeff.
JW Trading Journal : 2007-04-17 Closed position: SFBPQ - SPY April 147 Put @ 0.55, -76.60% 2007-04 month to date return : 0.03% 2007 year to date return : 15.74% vs. 2007 year to date SPY (S&P500) return : 3.86% Open position: 0 It's funny I was reading about the lesson that Martin Schwartz had learned in his craps game in a London casino. And now I'm having the same feeling with this PUT trade... [Pit Bull] - pg.38
So should we be worried about the market due to the lack of buy signals from your method ? This is a very nice journal, I hope you keep it up. Thanks.
Last year I had the same feeling at first when the system did not trade for a period of 1 and a half month. But then I realized the system is as good as it is. What I need to do is to produce another system or even a intraday trading strategy (which I am focusing on recently) to fill the gap. By doing So I won't be messing up a good system just to capture more trades (too much curve fitting) and will be able to utilize the same capital outside of the current signals. I appreciate your comments and thanks for following the journal.
2007-05-10 JW Trading Activity : Initiated long position with SFBER - SPY May 148 CALL @2.25. Open position : 1 Jeff, I believe trading level so far is consistant with the past. In the past few years it has been averaging about 55 trades per year. It has been 17 trades for the 1st quarter of this year.