9-8-2010 I covered my NQ short at 1875.75 (for 4 pts loss) a minute ago before I go to bed. Although today's price action looked bearish to me, I can't exclude a possibility that there might be another upthrust before it goes down. NQ is out of synch with ES and YM showing best strength. However, Euro and VIX's move are not really favoring bulls short term. If the market decides to consolidate more, I can always reenter short possibly at better price level. I bought a Sept ES 1100 put when ESU0 traded near 1100 today during RH. This would be short time trade since most likely I would close it by Friday market close or if ES trades near 1077-1080.
9-9-2010 Short one Dec NQ contract at 1893.5. At this point, I believe there will be more room for down side move than up. There is divergence on VIX which didn't make new low this morning while indices all made new high. Again the three indices are bit out of synch again. I am still holding the sept ES 1100 put, but I may close it depending on today's market close.
9-9-2010 Another observation regarding today's price action: It was pushed up to new high using some news excuse right before market open. It has been steadily distribution since (more apparent on ES and YM). DOW transport also show some negative divergence.
9-10-2010 I had two chances to close my NQ 1893 short neat 1880 for 13 pts profit (last night and middle of today's RH). I haven't regret not doing that. Based on classic TA, the rising wedge could reverse imminent. I plan to cover my NQ short neat 1840-1850 or stop out 1900. The decay on my sept ES short (down 50%) is a little painful, but I still believe its fair value would be 20 before expiration.
9-13-2010 The gap up move over the weekend made my shorting difficult. Based on the price pattern, it looks to me there are two forces trying to gain the control of market. The one that wanted to take it down is the one that had control of market price movement over 80% time, the other one that pushes market up is an unsophisticated one. Today could be another 6/21 if it closed in red, or it could resemble 2/26 and 3/30 the start of grinding up steadily.
9-14-2010 Shorted one Dec ES at 1121 and covered at 1116.5 (~50% daily range) EURO and GLD, TNX and equity indices are completely out of synch. It has to resolve soon. At this point, I don't feel comfortable to go long, but look for very short term short opportunity (the learning is not to get too greedy). SPX made another 5 pts upthrust above yesterday's high. It could reverse here for temporary retracement.
9-16-2010 The price action looked quite choppy today. I decide not to do anything now. I thought ES is running tired. If it breaks the "bull flag", I am thinking to short dec ES around 1127.