if the value of education is based on actual trading results, including decisions made under pressure without hindsight it would be central to know exercise here is real trade. not mere random posting if the value of education is based on fairy tales and imagination, no need to prove anything further
12-23-2009 total trades: 10 RT winner:5 loser:4 wash:1 net P/L: -0.75 pt ESH10 made new high early morning before open. It was sold down to 1111.25. started live trading at 11am. a selling climax at 10am and a swing low with less vol 25 minutes later. Selling was probably done temporarily. Went long here and exit taget was the resistance level after first selling climax (neckline of double bottom). after 50% retrace, a descending triangle from 11:40 to 12:35. The breakout upward didn't have decisive vol, went short b/e thought it could be fake move. got stopout. In retrospec, if the price passed the previous highest candle at beginning of the descending triangle, it most likely is not false breakout/upthrust. since the candlestick broke up to 1116.5 at 12:50 had long upper shadow and vol spike on next doji bar, went short again thought retrace was over. Stopped out again. At this point, it looked to me the price wanted to retest intraday high at open. had to be away from my desk from 2-3pmET so no trades. resume trading at 3pmET, went short after retest 1117.25 and forming a double top (2 attempt to break 1117.25, neckline 1116). ok a profitable scalp heer. selling picked up a little, reshort at pullback and got stopout again as price made 3rd attempt to break 1117.25. I might be able to get out a little earlier when the micro supply line broke (instead suffer 1 pt loss at stoploss, could use preemptive market order to getout a most likely losing trade). reshort after 3rd attempt to break intraday high at 1117.25 failed. took quick profit right before closing bell 3:59. Unbelivable holiday season bullish bias. very nice time and prcie for big moeny to distribute their holdings to retailers. The tight pivot range and new low VIX might imply some imminent big move. Although price could break either direction out of current range, the tired rally and recent dollar strength might mean down move could be very likely. Anyway, often this type of intermediate term perspective of general market is not really helping scalpers. It might do more harm than godd since it affects scalper's objective view of teh price action within very short term. It is not particularly a good day for me in terms of profit. However, I did manage to stick to all my trading rules to minimize losses.
these journals are meant for the creator. He doesnt need to "prove" anything to you. Stop bashing him. On another note, I also trade the ES using Fib retracements. Primarily looking for ambush setups. (50-61.8%) These strategies work great for trending markets. Having said that, I would reccommend using some sort of indicator to enter and exit based on your retracements. I use the $ICK chart for confirmation on entry ( buy on low tick hook within its trading range) with a ADX above 20 to confirm a trend. Try using this setup. I promise you it will help you with you scalps and entries. Good luck and keep up the work. Remember your journal is for you and your thoughts. dont let others knock on your game.
12-24-2009 Total trades: 2 RT loser: 2 net P/L: -1.5 pt started around 11:30. market reached new high this morning and retraced to between 50-62% of early day's range. Given the low vol and limited trading hour today, market was slow and range was small. There was vol spike at 12:00 noon failed break 1121.5. Went short here, expected down move was not realized within next 2 bars and exit with 0.5 pt loss (paying for two spreads to get in and out). Aroung 12:10-12:15, saw some weakness when second attempt to break 1121.5 failed. entered short at 1121.25. original target 1120.5. watched mini DOW 2 min down bars were moving steady with slight acceleration. ES bounced between 1120.75 and 1121.0 for some time. mini DOW's down move was stopped with a small vol spike. Here what I should have done was to take 0.25 pt by exiting at 1120 BECAUSE this was what the market was offering no more no less. I hesitated and didn't cover thought might be slight pull back before another down leg. Since the day is highly bullish biased, any counter move would be brief. This is where "hope" replaced "logic". If I ama true scalper, I would have exit decisively. At the moment, I was not acting as a real nimble scalper. Second chance to exit with small loss was to stopout at 1121.75 (0.25 above 1121.5 resistance). still didn't react. Until market made decision for me to stop me out at a full pt stop order. I still suffer from some psychological barriers I have to overcome when trading live. I clearly feel the differernce when trading live vs paper for I became less decisive. I've alos noticed, when I have a few losses, I get myself back if I act really nimble with small gain but higher winning probability. Another trick I might do is this. After I establish a position and if market doesn't move as expected shortly, I would ask myself what I would do now if I pretend that I don't have any position at the moment. If answer is neutral, I would stay in posiiton. If the answer is opposite to original position, I probably better to get out immediately without waiting for market to decide for me (hitting original stop).
To understand price characteristics of gap open day might provide some help to index day traders. I've decided to conduct a statistics study of SP 500 cash index gap open days' price pattern characteristics since 2000. I started with summary of gap open range vs calendar year.
Attached is a summary. The data in attached table is the gap open frequency wrt gap open range and calendar year (I used definition that open is at least 1 pt above or below previous close to be gap day in my study). It is interesting to note that 1. >97% gap up/down occured in 2007-2009, >80% gap open concentrated in 2008 and 2009. Does it imply any potential characteristic change for equity market starting from 2007? 2. Total frequency of gapups is close to that of gapdowns. 3. 124 out of 162 gap up open days have previous an up day (previous day's close higher than that of 2 days ago). 4. 129 out of 177 gapdown day also have previous a down day as well. I plan to focus on gap days from 2007-2009 for my next study of their intraday price patterns.
1. ~1/3 of gap open days, intraday low will not violate gap up open price or intrday high will not violate gapdown open price. This ratio stays unchanged regardless the gap open range. 2. ~1/2 of gap open days, intraday low will not go below previous day's close for gapup opens or intraday high will not go above previous day's close for gap down opens. 3. ~3/4 of gap opens, close will be higher/lower than previous day's for gapups/gapdowns. 4. May expect 15-20 points of intraday high/low above/below gap up/down open level.
12-28-2009 live trade today Total trades: 4 RT winner:3 loser: 1 net P/L: 0.75 pt SPX gap up (today's open is above previous close by more than 1 pt). 75% chance green close statistically. tested previous close at 10:45 and bounced. Some strength here. Looking for long position. Started at 11:30. retrace from morning sell off. did small scalp (long) till 12 noon. Price enter congestion and fail to break 38% retrace second attempt. Planned to enter long when break 38%, never happened. When the price suddenly broke intraday low, didn't initiate short position (now I am bullish biased today). Measuring the equal distance from bottom of congestion area, entered long ~1121 based on long lower shadow candlestick and selling vol climax. This was not bottom. Re-enter again as vol dimished on swing low. Ok here is the lower channel line draw from morning high to 1:25 bar. long 1120, out 1120.75, another long entered after small pull back and out at 1122 at supply line of channel. Entered long to early during 2 pm sell off. After selling climax at 2:15, read price action correct. 3:25 vol spike ended pull back. I didn't initiate any position after got out at 1122 at 3:45. Since price broke the upper channel supply line. It could be at least another 1 pt scalp. I might still suffering the impact of a string of 3 day consecutive loss. A bit nervous here. There are some characteristic daily price patterns related to trading by hour. The major patters associated with trading by the clock are 'M" and "W"s. Today is "W'. It would be interesting to do statistics study on it.