9-1-2010 It is good day for bulls. I think the fare value for my Sept ES 1050 call is near 40 for this week. It might be worth more later on, but then time decay starts to erode its value quickly. I would not quickly jump on to short near 1075 at this point. Judging by the price action, even it turns here, it would not be one day event. It looks like this is engineered move globally with currency/bond/gold in synchronized fashion. The big money supported 1040 are not looking for small profit. Usually there should be at least 5-8% move from the bottom. The nearest target for short would be near 108.9-109.0 on SPY based on my reading.
9-2-2010 Sold my sept ES 1050 call this morning. NQ reached 1830 today (my original second target) faster than I expected.
9-2-2010 Short one NQ contract at 1834. The breakout of triangle doesn't have volume and ES met 1087 resistance.
9-2-2010 i close my short at 1835 at AH. The last hour's price action has invalidated my setup. The last hour rally was not particularly bullish (too rush) to me. However, it doesn't seem ES would immediately reverse at 1090 since there is likely a quick upthrust tomorrow before it retraces. The upthrust didn't happen so far at AH. If tomorrow it opens lower, it probably would be bought up quickly.
9-3-2010 I am still holding NQ short position. The price action since 9/1 looked similar to the one bounced from 1020 from previous bottom in early July, huge gapup first up leg followed by ascending triangle without retrace or with very shallow retrace not letting wrong side trader to get out or sideline people to get in, then gapup again on second up leg. I had a thought to cover my short near 1853 (50% retrace between 1840 and 1870) after I shorted at 1868. I felt that 1830-1840 would be retested soon on the retracement.
9-7-2010 I covered my NQ short at 1856. NQ is holding better than ES and YM. I thought I was shorting the wrong one the whole morning. 1087-1090 might provide temporary support, but there is good chance 1072-1075 would get retested at least. Euro is slightly leading US equity market recently.
9-4-2010 ES and YM are not confirming the new high that NQ made this morning. The up move looked quite laborious. It could be side way for a few days before either breaking the resistance or reversing. I am still holding NQ short.