I didn't trade ES today because I had to leave a few minutes past 10:00 so I decided my limited time would be put to better use finding ways to lose money in CL. Looking at the ES chart after the fact, it seems like if you didn't get into a long position off the early double bottom (between 10:00 and 10:15am), play that initial breakout (10:20am bar on the 5-min chart), or short the first lower high at 11:00am, the rest of the day would be very difficult to trade. Taking a break is always good, IMHO. After painting my P/L 12 ticks red early on, I returned later with my replacement brain installed, and captured 40 ticks of joy with a single trade. Nothing like breaking your rules several times in a row, followed by a period of atonement, to get yourself back on track.
Thank you for stopping by and sharing your trading experience. I have to confess that I did one trade of ES today. Around 1:13, I saw selling was a little exhausted after second leg down. On 5 min chart, the second down leg looked like a small falling wedge. I went long at 1189.5 (88.75 stop) right above the up wedge line and exit in 4 minutes at 1191.25 near the small double bottom neckline though the price retrace back to 94.50, a little below 38% level. I had to be away from my desk from 1:30 and didn't make any trades for teh rest of day. Sometiems, I feel the best day I had was acting like a sniper waiting for the right moment with calm mind and patience. If price doesn't act as expected right away, get out with a wash trade or minimum loss. Another thing I will have to keep reminding myself about entry is first define the stop and risk, then enter trade with limit order based on where I want to put the stop. If I don't get filled, I will pass the trade instead chase it with market order. Trade has to be planned. If there is strong momentum, I can always use stop order to get into a trade.
Spot on! I too feel like a sniper on my best days. I talk to myself a lot now as if I was teaching someone else how to trade. ("Price looks weak like it's going to reverse. But wait there's another resistance level nearby, the bulls will try to push it there, hold on, wait for an actual reversal signal..."). This helps me truly confirm that I have a technically valid setup and I'm not just forming a random opinion about what price should and shouldn't do. I've been chopped to death so many times through impatience and overtrading.
5-4-2010 total trades: 2 RTs (ES) winner: 1 loser: 1 net p/l: 0.25 pts Due to my work schedule, I didn't have chance to make any trade yesterday. Today DOW dropped >250 pts when I got to my desk around 12 noon (ET). I was able to make a few trades between 12 to 2pm. The price was fairly flat. I went long at 1071.75 for a potential doube bottom neckline around 1pm, stopped out at 1070.5. Re-enter long at 1070 at 1:17pm (stop 1068.5), exit at 1071.5. I was in meetings since 2pm ET. I got back to my desk to watch the last 30 min until market close. ES made marginal new low, but YM and NQ didn't. SPX found some temperary support at 50 DMA. The flat price pattern could be a large bear flag (1154 on ES is 38% retrace since feb low). It may also make a throwback to retest 1177.5, 1182.5 and 1185 (ES).
5-5-2010 Total trades: 3 RTs (ES) winner: 2 loser: 1 net p/l: 1.25 pts ES made new intraday low in the morning and found some support near 1155. The bounce from 1155 was quite choppy with wide range bars. 1172.50 was a resistance level from yesterday. ES made intraday high at 1173 near noon. The tape showed some weakness of the price action. I went short at 1172.25 (stop 1173.25). I got a little excited when it dropped 1.25-1.5 pts a few seconds after my limit order got filled. I covered with market order and filled at 1171. From open until 2pm, price formed a complex HS patter. ES formed a bear flag from 12:45 to 2pm. The second leg down from 2pm to 3pm looked like a measured move. YM broke opening intraday low near 3pm. ES and NQ didn't. I'd like to mention my second long. I went long at 1167.75 at 1pm after price broke the mini-supply line at 1167 near 12:55. Although I exit at 1168 10 minutes later, but it was poorly planned trade. 1. I didn't enter a breakout with stop order, instead I bought the breakout at 0.75 pt above the resistance level. This could be a vulnerable place due to overthrwo retest. 2. Actually, price not only retested supply line, it actually retested previous swing low at 1165. My stop was 1164.75. I suffered the adversity much higher than I should have. Another problem with the breakout was it lacked vol and followthru.
5-6-2010 Total trades: 6 RTs ES winner: 2 loser: 4 net p/l: -2.25 pts I entered one wrong trade and covered at market order losing 1 pt. largest losing trade: -1.75pts. largest winning trade: 2pts I stopped trading at 1:55 after the last bottom pick stopped out. After 6 trades and loss of 2 pts, I took a break for the rest of day. I was glad that I didn't trade the last two hours, the voatility was just too much for me.
Darn, ycxc, I was hoping you'd say, "Shorted the breakdown at 1124.50 looking to scalp a couple pts and accidentally ended up with 50 pts
It was interesting that May 6 turned out to be some reverse day according to some cycle study. Today is a rare day in US stock history. To fully capitaize on such event is not easy. In a large picture, the market might be forming a multi-top inverted expanding triangle. 1050 could be retested. If it holds, there might be another upleg to retest 1200 level (1246 depending on the time it takes to reach there).
5-7-2010 Total trades: 3 RTs (ES) winner: 3 net p/l: 4.5 pts I started around 1pm. Went long at 1:30 when price broke the mini supply line with 3rd attempt. waited for breakout and throwback. Long 1113.25 and out at 1115.75. The other two were short play. Price went above 20 bar MA and fell below it, the second time it would make a LH, but could not cose above MA. The two shorts were entered at 2:24 and 3:04. Price fell hard shortly after my entry. Unfortunately, I got excited and covered with market order and didn't hold a little longer to take more profits.
5-10-2010 total trades: 3RTs (ES) winner: 2 loser:1 net p/L: 1.5 pts During today's regular hour, price was forming a giant bull flag. I've drawn slight down sloped channel from open to 12 noon swing high and 10:45 swing low. The swing low at 1:15 and 2pm were hitting the lower channel line within 1 tick. The price action was quite choppy in my taste. Each individual bar (for instance 2 min) was quite wide. I did miss a lot opportunities because either I didn't act decisively, or when I got confirmation, the price was already a bit too far from the stop I would set. I did cut my losing trade quickly today without any hesitation and reversed when the tape told me to. Again, my biggest problem was still exiting winning trade too prematurely. Based on the price pattern, it broke bull flag near close. However, price spent most of day at lower half of the daily price range. I would be cautious to the upside move tomorrow.