4-21-2010 No trades today. There was some computer problems at my work place this morning. I could not access internet for most of the trading hours. I had a few minutes to watch market near 3pm. I thought about going long at 2027 with stop 2025 after seeing price broke 2025 neckline, but didn't take the trade since I was on time crunch (had to attend a meeting at 3pm ET). NQ was strongest today during regular hours. The double bottom found support at top of yesterday's consolidation range. Second bottom was also higher than the first one. Es was weakest today. The second bottom was with high volume. On a large picture, SPX tested 1199 at second swing low and yesterday's open gap provided support. It looked like a breakout of double bottom from last Friday and this past Monday with a throwback to retest the neckline at 1197. Today could be the throwback and also a large bull flag since the bounce started on 19th. SPX managed to break the bull flag supply line at close. AH sharp decline implies that the bull flag breakout might have failed for now.
better quit the job and trade in full time. otherwise you will struggle forever. you can not beat a full time active trader since he/she is always in the market, day in and day out, he/she knows every move of the market from bottom to top, and from top to bottom, from opening to closing, from closing to AH....
4-22-2010 Total trades: 2 RTs (NQ) winner: 2 Net p/l: 6 pts Yesterday SPX forrmed a big bull flag at close. Price broke the lower channel of the bull flag this morning. SPX made measured move after breaking yesterday's low (206.5yesterday close at top channel line, 199 neckline, 190.5 swing low). The bull flag turned into a descending triangle at higher time frame. SPX made first throwback to retest 1199 neckline, formed second bottom (HL), and broke the neckline at 1199 with decisive movements and very healthy volume. It formed a small flag near the descending triangle top supply line near 1203, Price determined to retest 1209-1210 the support line draw since Feb low to April 8th swing low. Is it forming a big triangle? DJ transport has been strong this since this morning. ^TNX was green. My two longs entry were price breaking micro-supply line after breakout pullback. The best long today was when SPX broke 1199 neckline with speed and vol. It was too fast, I missed the breakout. I was hoping a throwback to retest neckline for long entry. It never looked back 1199. Most retrace were shallow after breaking double bottom neckline. It was like trend day patter (stair case). NQ is pulling ES and YM up. NQ 100 made new 52 week high today. ES was leading YM.
4-23-2010 Total number of trades: 1 RT (NQ) net p/l: 2 ticks I spent most time in meetings evry Friday unti 3pm ET. SPX and DOW were making new intraday high (52 week high) in the last hour. NQ was a little lagging. ^TNX green DJ transport was strong. SPX was eading today, which was healthy. I went long of NQ at 3:33 after seeing pulback and bounce with flat tight bar next and dried vol. NQ failed to break the mini supply line. ES and YM were stalled at nearest swing high resistance. I baied with 2 ticks gain at 3:41 right before the second down leg dip, which I would be shaked out with my stops. The pull back was a mini 2 down leg pattern. At 3:47, the breakout of mini-suppy line was the re-entry point confirmed by ES and DOW breaking out the resistance which they failed to get thru a few minutes ago. The volume was steady and solid at 3:47's breakout. Shorting could be frustrating in the last hour. Although I was tempted to short NQ several times, but decided not to due to 1. time constrain and poor reward/risk ratio. Market closed near day high. I was still a little uncomfortable with getting into a trade with stop orders. Another thing I will need to work on is re-entry strategy. The real move often comes after 2nd or 3rd failed attempt.
4-26-2010 Total trades: 5 RTs (NQ) winner: 3 loser: 2 net p/l: -0.5 pt After last Friday's new high on all three major indices. Today turned to be a consolidation day. market was a bit choppy. DOW was leading, SPX was lagging. NQ was looking like a triangle forming until noon when I started trading. I went long 4 times between 12:15 to 1pm anticipating the breaking out of some mini-supply line within the large triangle. I was stopped out twice and took a few ticks for two of the trades. I made no trades from 1 to 3:15pm. NQ broke the triangle at 2:10pm and made a move of slightly more than 62% retracement. It failed to go above 11:15am's resistance level. It broke down and found support at the extended top triangle line. There was some extreme reading of $tick (-1300?), but the selling volume was not convincing. ES made some measured move out of a flat rectangle consolidation price range. The selling was absorbed at 3:20 swing low (second intraday bottom) at 2043.25, one tick above the early intraday swing low. I went long at 2046.25 at 3:28pm (stop 2045). The price made some quick recovery. I exit at 2047.50 at 3:31pm. The price at the moment looked like it wanted to settle near 38% retrace.
4-27-2010 Total trades: 6 RTs (NQ) winner: 3 loser: 3 net p/l: -2.25pts Traded from 2 to 3:30pm ET. The first bounce since morning selloff (vol quite high) retraced between 38 to 50%. SPX was lagging. VIX had huge spike (>20%) this morning. ^TNX was in red. However, GL managed to break 1160. The selling after the first retracement was not extremely heavy (vol much lower compared with the first selling wave of this morning). However, price were declining steadily since first retracement. I was looking for double bottom scenario to go long. My thinking was after the big selloff this morning, it is most likely there will be second thrust retest intraday low. I was a little impatient with my entry by using micro-suppy line break to enter long. I got stopped out a few times. Around 3:17, I went long at 2013.5 after first breakout throwback. My original stop was 2011 and target 2017 (the failed neckline from first retracement). My mistake was I moved my stop up to 2015 as the price hit 2016.25-2016.5. I got shaked out at 2014.75. Watched price hit 2017.50. When the second retraced failed at 2017.50. It was pretty much over for bull for the rest of day (~30 minutes left to 4pm market close). I didn't expect another big leg down either. On SPX, the first retracement after morning selloff was a throwback to the uptrendline in large time frame. This morning's first down leg was ~14 pts range and second leg was ~16 pts from the top of first retracement.
4-27-2010 Another observation regarding price action. Around 1-2pm, NQ formed a mini-double top after retracement. Price broke 2018.5 neckline an dthe bearflag trendline around 2pm. From 2to 2:30, price was hovering near the previous resistance level 2017 with tight price bar and dried vol. There is high probability that price woul dbreak down further below the support 2017. There were LH and LL on 2 min bar before breaking down.
4-28-2010 FOMC day, no trading 1 hour prior to 2:15 and 30 minutes after 2:15. My experimence was there was no committment from either side one hour before the rate decision announcement (extreme tight price range with dried up volumes). Price often become extremely volatile shortly after 2:15. Total trades: 5RTS (3 NQ, 2 ES) winner: 2 (1 NQ, 1 ES) loser: 3 (2 NQ, 1 ES) Net p/l: -1.5 pts of NQ and 1.5 pts of ES SPX was leading and NAZ was lagging. VIX backed off a little. ^TNX green. Gold had nice followthru since yesterday's breakout from previous breakout and throwback. Overall market was not particularly bearish even yesterday was a big red day. I did three trades of NQ from long side between 11:49 to 12:19. I got stopped out from the first two trades. I went long at 1994.5 and out at 1997.50. Again I was a little impatient and was trying to catch double bottom. Since NQ was the weakest among three indices. It would have been better wait for a little more confirmation before entering long. A good place to go long was at 12:20 when price broke the less steep supply line after double bottom with confirmed higher low. It was ironic that it was where I got out. I went long again at 2:37 at 1189.25 anticipating breakout after bullflag. my stop was 1188.5. I was stopped out at 2:47 on a throwback retest the price level prior to the breakout at 2:15pm. The throwback was two legs down from a 2 min chart. I went long again at 1188.25 at 2:53 after seeing the good bounce from the dip and exit at 1190.50 at 2:55. No trades made between 3-4pm. YM looked like falling wedge until 12:50 breakout. Price tried to retest the upper wedge line as throwback several times prior to market close. On 60 min chart, SPX can be forming a inverted HS pattern, this is bullish scenario. If tomorrow price retest today's low and fail the support, today's consolidation can becom big bearflag and more downside would follow.
4-28-2010 Another observation. SPX has made higher high and lower low since April 15th. It could be potential broadening top/expanding triangle pattern. It might reach intermediate-term top after price makes another higher high within next 8-10 calendar days (May 6th?). May 6th was also mentioned by Cobia's market view blog.
4-29-2010 Today is one of those days I should not forget easily. Almost everything went wrong with me. There were something at work that needed my full attention. Certainly it was not an excuse, but I should have stayed out of trading when I could not really keep calm and clear mind and focused on trading. Total trades: 11 RTs Winner: 3 loser: 8 net p/L NQ: -0.5 pt ( 3 trades) ES: -5.5 pts (7 trades) YM: -9 pts (1 trade) 5 trades in last 30 minutes before 4pm were all losers. Let's see how I broke my rules again. 1. overtrade 2. I set my rule not to trade for the last 30min prior to 4pm market close. At least not to initiate new trades in last 30 minutes. 3. I totally violated my max $200 daily max loss limit. 4. I tried to make even with market and made numerous trading decisions completely under emotion control. Technically, I made these mistakes when entering trades. Although I have traded most from long side due to strong price action, I got whipsawed terribly while price went into a consolidation/congestion zone after nice morning run-up. I did one reverse with stop at 1201.75 (ES) around 3:27. Immediately I got stopped out with 2 pts loss. The market moved as one of the scenarios I anticipated. Did I get too excited? The ultimate question is how I can profit from my anticipation if it turns out to be right. If price bounces up here and to form the thrid peak of a broadening top or expanding triangle, it would most likely move in ABC three phases rather than straight up. price pattern was flat I'll take a break tomorrow