4-12-2010 Total trades: 2RTs winner: 1 loser: 1 net p/l: 1 pts SPX gapped up at open and then traded in a symmetric triangle (same as NQ). I wnet long around 12pm at 1193.5 (stop 1192.75). I got stopped out, but filled at 1193. Re-enter long at 1193.5. Tape reading indicated 1193 support. Price consolidated above the middle line of daily range. Price broke out at 4 th time touching the upper triangle supply line. Exit at 1195 near 1pm. I was in the meeting for the next two hours. The last hour price broke double top nexkline after breaking triangle to the upside. Then a throwback and fell again. It looked price wanted to close the open gap and found support. I didn't see big selloff today. Breaking 1192.75 implied some downside since price spent significant time aroun 1193. However, downside was probably limited sinec VIX is in red. No extreme on $tick. There was also good absorption vol at the dips. Only potential bearish one was ^TNX, which closed at low at 3pm. Tomorrow could be another bullish day.
4-13-2010 total trades: 2 winner: 1 loser : 1 net p/l: 0.75 pt SPX teste 1189 support successfully ths morning. Today's price action was like last Thursday's trend day after the dip. There were very shallow retrace since the dip. I went short at 11:50 expecting a bearflag breakingdown. The price touched 1187.50 and immediately bounced back. After waited fro 10 minutes without seeing price breaking down, I covered my short at 0.25 pt loss. 12: 15's breakout was on good vol. I went long at 1190 at 12:55pm seeing dried up vol. I exit at 1191 after 2 minutes. Noticed that NQ made new high at the time and YM was retesting intrday high. NQ has been leading breakout. I was in meetings until 3: 10pm Tape reading showed strong buying at 1192.5 to 1193. Both YM and ES were consolidating around intraday high without much pullback. I was thinking to use stop order to buy breakout above 1193.50, but price broke out quickly to 1195 before I could place my trade. On a large picturem SPX breakout 1192 last Friday and this morning's dip was a throwback and found support at previous 1192 resistance. It still looked bullish.
4-14-2010 Total trades: 3 RTs winner: 3 net p/l: 1.75 pts I was able to trade from 11:15 to 3pm. SPX gapped up, retested yesterday's close and bounced. Once the price went above the open swing high, it has been steadily moving up with a staircase pattern. Today is a typical trend day. The deepest retrace between 1:30 and 2pm after breaking out of open range was no more than 2.5 pts on ES. NQ has been leading until 1pm. YM took the lead after 2pm. Basically, all three major indices were moving in sync today. I went long three times between 12 and 3pm after price broke micro-supply line after each shallow retrace. The price range was about 3.5 pts between that time frame. In general, I exit a little too early for each trade. I had to go to a meeting at 3pm. ES made new high (2.5 pts from previous intraday high) after 3:30 with good volume. Buying above open range and hold until close would have been able to catch the most move of the day. Fading the trend today could be very frustrating since the counter movement was too shallow.
4-15-2010 Total trades: 5 RTS ( 3 RTs on ES and 2 RTs on NQ) Winner: 3 Loser: 2 Net p/l: 0.5 pt The reason I traded NQ was because it's pattern a bit more defined than ES. What I have observed today is YM retested early morning intraday high successfully, while ES and NQ didn't make new high. ES was the weakest today. ES's daily pattern was new high in the morning, tested open range low to run stops and bounced. A double bott6om withs econd bottom higher low. Broke the neckline and made a throwback before retest intraday high. NQ was forming a ascending triangle. ES was trading within a narrow range. NQ/ES touched the resistance of the trading range 4 times and could not really break out to challenge new high. There were no explosive price/volume at the rested new high. I shorted NQ after price broke the ascending triange at 2035 (stop 1136), and covered at 1134. Shorting has to be nimble and quick. Price did bounce before close to retest neckline froms econd top. ES broke 1128 when NQ broke 2035. Another learning is when price falls, it is best to short the weakest index among the three and when price rises, long the strongest one. If I had shorted ES rather than NQ, the profit would be more. I was thinging to use sell stop to short ES at 1128.25 (1128.50 has been touched so many times before it broke down below it, there could be many stops below it). I missed ES and went shorting NQ.
good post. but id like to hear others opinion on the above quote, seems like an easy rule of thumb except for the times it doesn't work. have you tried pair trading these?
I've seen people mentioned divergence between SP, DOW and NAZ during intraday extremes in several trading books. I have clearly seen what the implication was today by observing such divergence. It is like any trading rule that there will be exceptions. It is all matter of probability.
4-16-2010 Total trades: 3 RTs winner: 2 (one ES, one NQ) loser : 1 (ES) net p/L: 3 ticks of NQ I had meeting from 12noon to 3pm ET today. It was not easy to trade after 11:30 since the majority of price movement was already over. Today was a volatile day. It was interesting that yesterday's divergence between DOW, NAZ and SP turns out to mean something for today's price action. It signaled some type of top by yesterday's pattern Let's review yesterday's SP price action, new high in the morning, complete retrace to bottom of open range to run stops for one tick, retraced all the way back to retest early intraday high, price consolidated in a tight range near high and the final breakout was lack of vol and could not take out intraday high. Price fell below the neckline (bottom of consolidation range prior to second top). retested neckline at close. This morning, SP fell below the double top neckline formed yesterday. It made a measured movement and another thorwback to retest the DT neckline, fell again. This time it was some real down movement. Today, I went long near 1pm after price made a last down thrust around 12:40pm. exit for 3 ticks on NQ. I went short around 3:30 seeing price broke a bearflag and hovering above the 23.6% retrace level from intraday low. However, since the price was also so close to the mini-supply line and could break above it any time as second attempt. I had choice to wait for price to break the support and enter short on sell stop order. Or I could get on short before it breaks support, but with risk of upward breakout at supply line. Since the volatility is high today, I entered buy stop with 2 contracts at one tick above the recent high above the supply line. My short (1189) was stopped out at 1190.50, and I end up with one net long at 1190.50 (stop 1189). Price fell to 1189.25 before it made up move. I was a bit nervous, but sticked to my original plan. My target was 1192 (1 tick above the 38% fib level). Vol was about right at the moment. I waited until the target hit. Shortly after my exit, price retested 2:15 high and met resistance at bearflag trend line (a throwback move? ). Reverse sometimes works providing the volatility is there. When volatility is good, enter trade with confirmation using stop order might be better than trying to be early bird. There were just too many stop orders around these key price levels. Any unbalance could trigger some decent move on either side of price. The correction might not be over yet. 1175 and 1162.5 would be important support on SPX.
4-19-2010 Total trades: 3 RTs winner: 2 ( two ES trades) loser: 1 (one NQ trades0 Net p/l: 1.5 pts ES, -1.75pts NQ I have been in meetings for most of the trading hours until 3pm ET. The price pattern by 3pm showed double bottom (higher L at second) with neckline at 1185 on ES. YM is leading today. NQ is lagging. VIX turned into RED. TNX has been green at 3pm close. The double bottom with $tick at -1300 extremes. I missed the double bottom buying at neckline. I was hoping it could throwback retest neckline at 1185. It never did. It implied strength of bull. ES was forming a bull falg after 3pm near intraday high. I went long at 1191.25 (stop 1190.25) 3:23pm, exit at 1192.25 target. I went short NQ around 3:42pm anticipating potential breaking of bull flag support. I got stopped out with 7 ticks. I went long again at 1192.00 as ES breaking bullflag (a mini descending triangle supply line). Exit at 1192.50 prematurely. Vol has been good on 5 min chart with breaking out of bull flag.
4-20-2010 total trades: 2RTs (ES) winner: 1 loser: 1 net p/l: 0.25 pt I went long at 1202.5 (stop 1202.0) after price broke micro-supply line. Exit at 1203.50 (the vol was bit a ow on breakout). More consolidation expected b efore retest intraday high. I came back from a meeting around 3:10pm ES. I went long at 1203.75 around 3:38pm seeing price broke 1203.50 resistance. I got stop out at 1203.00 at next 2 min bar. For the second trade, I was planning to buy the breakout of micro-supply line at 1203.00 (with 1 pt stop). I hesitated and missed the entry (I am going to try stop order to enter a trade). I watched price action and bought as it broke 1203.50 resistance. The problem that the trade failed was lack of volume at this time of the day for a breakout. Price fluctuated around 1203.5 to 1204 until 4pm close. I didn't re-enter because didn't see convincing movement by either side. The decisive execution of a trade could really minimize some risks. This is something I need to train myself to do. Price broke 1204 resistance after 4pm close. It looks ike price consolidated into close in a rectange box. Interesting, it broke 1207 at 4:30pm.
4-20-2010 NQ broke to new high AH on Apple and Yahoo earning. The last hour trading during RH was quite inetersting. There was no real weakness, but the price could not break out of the consolidation range. It was probably due to lack of commitment from either side, or some manipulation by big money to squeeze the traders on the wrong side.