2-25-2010 Total trades: 4RTS winner: 2 loser:2 net p/L: 0.5 pt I traded YM three times and last trade was on ES. Based on the measured move from inverted HS, I shorted YM at 269 and got stopped shortly at 277. Shorted again, I didn't manage the trade adequately by not taking 9-10 pts on YM. I got stopped out again (another mistake was I could have moved the stop to breakeven after having 9-10 pts profit at least). I shorted YM again at resistance the 3rd time and took some profit. Simce price was not going down and the pattern was an apparent bull flag, I went long on ES at 1097.5 and took profit at 1099.25. I entered 1097.5 at 3rd attempt to break 1098 around 2:47. My stop was nearest swing low at 1095.5 (2 pts stop was a little wide, I took the chance since the bullflag was classic). Although the price failed, I saw buyer supporting 1096 and price made higher lows. As I expected, it broke 1098 at 4th attempt. I saw many stops hit on SPY TOS. Price moved up quickly. Although my original target was 1100 based on the width of the bullflag area, I took profit early at 1099.25. 1100 turns out to be a little conservative probably due to stops at 1098 added fuel to the breakout. There was also 60 minutes bullflag consolidation. The breakout was good. I hesitated at breakout throwback long entry around 3:25pm. price action showed long above 1098. The reason I traded YM today was the pullback on ES after touching 1098.5 at 2pm was too fast. Ithought YM was a little better entry. I was not familiar with how stops being hit on YM. I'll probably trade ES exclusively from now on. Although YM seems to provide better resolution on ask/bid, it moves a little fast than ES.
2-26-2010 Total trades: 1 RT winner: 1 net p/L: 1 pt I was having meeting all morning until 3:30pm EST. I had a short break between 2 to 2:30PM EST. Today is the last trading day of the month. Is there any statistical significance about it? I want to find out from historical data. 1096 was an important price level on ES. The opening swing low found good support there. The openning range high 1103-1103.75 became good support/consolidation range in the afternoon. The middle day pullback between 12:30 and 1pm was right at 50% of the openning range and 62% fib level between morning intraday extremes. I went long at 1103.5 at 2:24pm and out at 1104.5 at 2:29pm. The trade was based on micro supply line breakout from a 38% pullback from the first up leg. I entered trade immediately as price closing above 20 bar MA (2min bar). The price action in last hour was probably aiming at stop run after breakout of a mini-triangle with several throwbacks. It doesn't look like good buying here since the breakout was not that clean. Or just because neither buyer/seller had absolute control of price as it moved into this level. It looked to me that price was again taken higher in order to sell. I suspect that there would be some selling at Monday especially early morning. The last 2 min big price drop might be due to buyers took profit at end of the day.
3-1-2010 Total trades: 3 RTs winner: 2 loser 1 net p/L: 0.25 pt I was able to be at my desk from 2:45 to market close. Long at 1113.5 around 2:56pm seeing good support at 1113.00 and price trying to break out the micro supply line at second attempt. I set my stop at 1112.50 (one tick below recent swing low). Stopped out for 1 pt loss. Long at 1112.75 at 3:13pm. This was the 3rd attempt to break the micro-supply line. As a scalper, I overstayed in this trade. I exit at 1113.25 at 3:40pm. A better scalping play could have exited around 1114.00 as seeing strong resistance at 1114.50. Long again at 1113.75 at 3:45pm (stop 1112.75, original target 1115 as measured move). This was higher low and moving above 20 bar EMA ( both 2 min and 5min) long setup. The vol was about right. I exit at 1114.50 seeing price could not breakthru 1114.75 till 4 pm market close.
3-3-2010 Total trades: 1RT winner: 1 net p/l: 1 pt I was able to trade for the last hour before market close today. I went long at 1118 at 3:12 and exit at 1119 in 3min. It was climax selling followed with low vol higher low and breaking supply line. 1118 was the neckline and price action favored buyer. It was also the 3rd attempt for price to get above 20 bar (2min) MA. I took the quick profit since there often is a breaking neckline followed with a throwback to retest neckline and a vol spike indicating a small pullback. 3:32 price broke less steeper supply line and formed a small inverted HS. The breakout above 1119 was above the HS neckline, but it ran into some resistance at 1120.
3-4-2010 I was able to be at my desk from 12 to 1:30pm EST. The price was moving flat in a narrow consolidation zone since 11:30 around the middle of early intraday extremes. 1115.50 has very strong support for almost three days. The low of the consolidation range was sitting right at yesterday's close. I am a little bullish biased at the moment. My plan was to buy at low of the consolidation range and take profit at top of the resistance at 1119-1119.50. So far, I did 4 scalp trades, 3 win and 1 loss for net 1 pt gain. Buy judging the price movement speed at the resistance line, it tells whether the breakout would fail or not. I went long at 1119.50, the 4th attempt of breaking 1119.50 resistance line. The 4th attempt did breakthru 1119.5-1119.75 resistance. However, the vol was not there. It was quickly sold down (selling the bulge). I took quick profit at 1120.25. 1118 and 1115.5 are two very important support levels. It looks like the price might want to retest intraday low after failing to break to the upside at 1:20pm.
3-4-2010 total trades: 4RTs winner: 3 loser: 1 net p/l: 1 pt I came back to my desk at 3pm EST. I missed the breakout at 3:30. 1119.50-119.75 would be my entry zone, but I hesitated. The first leg up after breakout was not very powerful so I am not sure if there will be a second leg since it is a bit late. If bulls can hold above 1118/1120, price might not favor bears (some end of day covering by seller?). 3:45pm now. Bulls look determined to retest intraday high 1123. That was a good stop run. I have seen this many times. If price spends most of time within a narrow consolidation range, the breakout at end of day would be quite violent most of the time. Today, price spent about 4.5 hrs within a 2 pts range.
3-5-2010 total trades: 1RT winner: 1 net p/l: 0.75 pt It is definitely a trend day so far. The tight flat consolidation since 10:30 was a gift to bulls whoever missed morning bus. I got at my desk at 2:23. Immediately I long at 1133.75 for breakout or at least retest 1135. My original target was 1135.5 based on the distance to its inraday high of YM. I expected this breakout would be synchronized for both DOW and SPX. I took short profit at 1134.5 right before the breakout. This was the 4th attempt at the resistance level. I apparently mismanaged this trade by exiting too early. Based on my tape reading, the powerful buyer is determined to absorp any selling on their way to 1140 (SPX round number). The vol bar on 5 min at 2:40 was >100k. This is the same pattern the buyers have been playing, gapup at open, flat long consolidation in the middle day for 4 hrs and breakout at later the session. 1135.5 was the reentery point of buying breakout. To trade the trend day, you got to have the faith to buy and hold till the end of day. Yes, They want 1140 on SPX.
3-5-2010 Missed 1136.5 breakout of bull flag after 3 pt pullback. A few seconds hesitation. It could close at high. I would not short here.
3-8-2010 Total trades: 5RTs winner:1 loser:2 wash: 2 net p/l: -1.25 pts Range bond trendless day. Exected consolidation after Friday's run. The price settled at 50% fib and previous's close. The two losers were all profitable at one time. The price reading was telling me that buyers not in a hurry to retest 1140.5 intraday high. The roll over type of price patter after each failed to make new higher high after lunch time implied that later breakout not very likely. I was a bit too complacent with my trades and allowed some stop run occured, which added loss exceeded profit. A nimble scalping play with small profits would be appropriate strategy for today's price action.