2-1-2010 Total trades: 2 RT winner:1 loser:1 net p/l: 0.25 pt There is some change of my working schedule for the next 3-4 weeks. During this period, I will not be at my desk for most of the time in the morning until 2-3pm ET. Today is not really a trend day since there are many deep retraces. On 60min chart, SPX is moving flat approaching the supply line of teh big down trend channel. In a big picture, the price is probably still in a consolidation rather than reverse. Went short at 1081.75 at 2:22. The price pattern was forming a rising wede. The price broke belwo neckline 1082 of a mini HS. I wet short thinking the move since 2:15 was a throwback. The price met strong support at 1081.25. Here is how I made mistake, the trade shown marginal profit briefly, when the price went against me, I didn't cover at breakeven rather at 1 pt loss. As price broke he mini supply line drawn from 1:15 to 2:00. Went long at 1082.75 assuming it could be a bull flag and price wanted to retest intraday high. Exit at 1084 at 2:40pm. No trade since. I missed a long entry at 2:50pm a throwback at cradle. I hesitated and missed the 1082.5 entry. The price is forming ascending triangle with HLs since 1pm. It tested 1084.5 4 times since 1:40pm. Buying breakout with stop was not profitable until 3:52pm, the 5th attempt to break 1084.5. The price was moving relatively fast and many bars were quite wide. I was not able to make quick decision to catch these moves.
2-2-1010 total trades: 5 RTs winner: 1 loser: 4 net p/l: -1.25pts started at 2:10 pm ET Long 1097.75 at 2:15 expecting retest 1099 intraday high at 1:40. Stop out at 1096.5. It was a poor decision because, 1. after 3 push up this morning, the consolidation would be at least more than 30 min before retest; 2. the price broke the trend line and 20 bar EMA on 2 min (a more conservative entry is waiting for price coming inside channel before going long); 3. inproper stop (should have set at previous high at 1097). Instead risk 1.25 ps stop, could use 0.75 pt stop. 2:20 long after price broke the micro supply line. stopout at 0.5 pt loss. 2:42, price broke micro supply line second time, but failed to close above. Went long and got stopout for 1 pt again (lack of patience). 2:48 long 1096.75 again seeing after 1096 holds (23.6% fib retrace). Stopped out fr -0.75 pt (mistake was the support was 1096, the beter stop would be one tick below the support or 1095.5 low at 2:45). Seeing bull flag about to complete, entered long again at 1097.25. Exit at 1099.50. failed to hold a little longer for another 1-1.5pts potential profit. 1101.75 was the extended trendline drawn from 10 to 1:15pm. Another approach to choose exit poit is to use the micro traned line with trailing stop. using equal distance rule, 1099.50 previous high, breakout point 1098, so the potential target would be 1101. sine it is the last hour of trading, the vol picks up on breakout, the potential target had high probability to be hit. At 3:06, the 2 min bar had dried up vol, while price was approaching the micro-supply line. This was often a good pre-breakout setup. My initial judgement about the bull flag was right, but technically, I overtraded today ( at least 2 unnecessary trades). For scalper, when there are 20-25 ticks loss due to stopout of 3-4 bad trades, it would not be easy to make it back so need to be very careful with entry and stops.
Question? You've been at it now just shy of 2 months. Are you profitable? A quick scan of your thread looks like you may be just positive!
I am down 300USD in my future account since I started live trading on Dec 18, 2009. My commission is 5 USD for each RT. 59 RTs in Dec 2009, account net -120 USD end of month 71 RTs in Jan 2010, account net -182.50 USD end of month. The total commission from ec 2009 and Jan 2010 are 650 USD. My account was down total 302.50 for these 2 months.
I suggest you try the Dow Futures or Forex or maybe Options. I hate the ratios on the emini ES, i use it as an indicator of sorts. The Dow rolls along alot nicer and the stop points are cheaper depending on your capital and strategy. I recommend Forex because its cheaper on your margin, waaaaaaay cheaper and alot cheaper in terms of fees/commissions as some brokers will let you trade on narrow pip spreads. I highly reccomend TOSwim for Forex as they have no commission Forex and Commissions Forex. I also suggest Options because then you can start with Vertical Spread options on 1 lot. I am currently learning options as well and I love the limited risk/reward scenarios of Vertical Spreads, again, TOSwim has an excellent platform for this but I find their fees for options are too high. The Nasdaq is choppy but moves nicely off pivots. I wish you much success and congratulate you for being brave enough to share your trading journey.
2-3-2010 My work schedule has been busy for the morning and could not really concentrate on trading. I did watch the market whenever I got chance to my desk. After 2 days retrace, market pulled back again today (The potential retrace to 1115 might take ABC three big steps. So we might be on B down today). There was a big falling wedge from 10 to 12pm. Idid a breakout wedge pullback long (paper trade) at 12:46. Stopped out with 1 pt loss at 1092.25 (I originally set stop at 1 tick below previous bar low at 1092. I then moved the stop thought the 1092.25 wouldn't get hit). It got hit at cradle pt. I re-enter again at 1093 and set target 1094.75. I could not watch the trade since I had to leave. The second paper trade turns out to be profitable for 1.75pts. I came back to my desk around 2:30. The third breaout of mini supply line at 2:52. I thought about going long at 1094.25 (20 bar EMA of 2 min). I hesitated. Price met resistance at 1096 (a trend line drawn from 10am to 1:30pm for a big triangle). Price bounced back from up triangle line. I expected 2 leg pullback. Went another paper trade short at 1093.75 with sell stop order (stop 1094.25). Exit 1093. The triangle has upside breakout bias based on last two days move. Enter short position the in the middle line of the triangle is not the best entry. 2/3 of the 9 hrs triangle length is 6 hrs. The breakout could be near 4pm, but buyers might have to rush it a little bit. I usually don't trust rushed move since it has to take reasonable time for buyers to absorb sellings in order to breakout successfully. Today actually is good day for scalper/day traders. Long breakout of mini trendline at low and short at top of mini trend line breakout. Overall, price is making LH and HLs. When it is close to the apex of triangle, the range shrinks. The swing margin becomes small. last paper trade of the day, long 1095.25 (stop 1094.5) at 3:38 waiting for breakout to upside. Move stop to 1095.75. target 1097.75. stopped out at 1095.75 for 0.5 pt profit. looks like false breakout. Buyers probably should not have rushed it. Ok. day ended without breakout of triangle. Price settled in the middle price level of teh triangle. I did ok reading the price action today (probably also due to no live trading today so less pressure). I recognized the triangle after two touches on upper and lower sides of the triangle and some mini wedges between triangle, etc.. However, i haven't been able to act quickly, decisively and automaticaly to what I have observed and what potential probability I perceive there exists. Definetly more practice is needed for me.
Thank you for your recommendation. The problem I am not making positive return is not becuase of the vehicle I am trading , but my edge is not good enought. I still want to focus on ES trading. I have been watching it whenever I can. Overtime, I feel I get to know better about its characters. If I don't have enough edge, it doesn't really matter what I trade and I would not be able to make positive return anyway.
I second wolf's comments regarding ES. "Edges" are harder to find and still tougher to implement. The better behaved a market the better the odds your edge will survive. Why fight the hardest market when you simply don't have to. Mistakes in ES you lose an arm or leg. With others (NQ, YM.. etc) only a pinky.. you simply survive long enough to finally do well as psychological currency is very difficult to regain once lost. True I am posting as one that gave up ES (decided not to bother trying to conquer a market) and MAYBE you may conquer it... good luck!
2-4-2010 Total live trades: 3 RTs winner: 1 loser: 1 wash: 1 (entered wrong order and immediately reverse with 2 contracts, one of the order became wash trade) Started at 12:30 pm ET. Didn't plan to trade live due to interruption of meetings so I decided to do some paper trading while I was at my desk. Price tested new low shortly after 12:30. Short cover afterwards with vol starting to dry up. paper trade #1: short at 1068 at 1:39 (20 bar EMA and 25% down channel line and vol dried up). Stop 1069. covered at 1066.5 for 2.5 pt profit right before the the big drop (missed 1-1.5 potential pts). A small falling wedge wwas forming since 11:30. paper trade#2: short at 1066.50 at 2:08 (stop 1067.50), covered at 1065.25 for 1.25 pts. 20 bar EMA and 25% channel line resistance again. meeting at work place was pushed out to 1pm pacific time. I decided to do some live trade if I see opportnities. At 2:20pm, price selling climx, price broke 25% channel line, then 20 bar EMA 92min) then mini falling wedge. I waited to see how price reacts when it approaching the top of down trend channel line. price broke out top down trend channel line at 2:26pm, vol looked decent, some pull back and found support at 20 bar EMA. Went long at 1068.75 at 2:35 with stop 1067.5. Stopped out for 1.25 pts loss(1067.25 the bounce low from 20 bar EMA at 2:32 didn't get hit). since the vol was low at down move shakeout, re-enter at 1067.75 long at 2:45 (filled a wrong sell order, immediately reverse with buying 2 contracts and luckily got filled at exact same price). Exit at 1069 at 2:49 for 1.25 pts profit. since price failed to break 1069.50 the second attempt. 1069.5 is also 23.6% fib retrace. Shortly price broke 20 bar EMA. price consolidate within a rectangle zone. Around 2:52 price stayed within tight range at bottom of the support with dried vol. It doesn't look like buyers are not agressive enough to defend the support. I didn't short at breakout since I thought it could be just a throwback. At 3pm, price broke down. Retested intraday low. There might be more down side, but it is close to 4pm. I would not expect more breakdown today. Price might want to test 200day MA soon. Today is nice trend day, but most movements was completed before 11:30. It immediately wiped out the entire gain from past monday and tuesday. market tried to release the oversold pressure with flat consolidation with long period rather than quick price pullback. Shorts are probably not in a hurry to cover (waiting for 200 day MA?). There were probably not many dip buyers either.
I have been watching both ES and YM for some time now. YM has small spread during the day (typically 1 tick, occasionally 2). Sometimes you might find the price pattern on YM is more well defined than that on ES and occasionally breakouts start on YM 1-2 seconds earlier than that on ES. Other than that, both YM and ES move in pretty synchronized mode. I have traded YM 2-3 times, but don't really see there is any reason I would do better with YM if I could not with ES. YM/ES paired trading could be interesting, but that is different story. Thank you for sharing your experience with me.