It’s the interpretation you conclude to after using the tool to measure, that makes this deadly to traders $$. It is misused, and (bad) traders use this tool to infer from the past to predict the future and structure their portfolio around such a horrendous investment strategy.
Also...since you mentioned measurement.... Wittgeinsteins Ruler. Wittgenstein's ruler situations: 1) When you use a ruler to measure the table, you are also using the table to measure the ruler. 2) The more unexpected the measurement, the more you apply W's ruler. As NNT said: Wittgenstein's ruler: nerds use the ruler to measure the table; Fat Tonies (and real scientists) use the table to measure the ruler. Unless you have confidence in the ruler's reliability, if you use a ruler to measure a table you may also be using the table to measure the ruler. ” Ludwig Wittgenstein TA tools give false confidence when one uses them in inferring from past events to predict future events.
Here, I’ll answer it again. That’s me highlighting that a day trading strategy that is based only on TA (assuming the individual is using TA to infer from the past and predict the future: problem of induction) will fail over the long run. It does not mean “its impossible to make money in the short term”
Separately, people forget that predicting an event, itself, is irrelevant. —> The Fallacy of Forecasting https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/the-fallacy-of-forecasting.336260/
As I sit here in regret regarding engaging with that certain individual in this drawn out back & forth. I’ve come to learn that it is unethical to engage any further. I, sincerely, wish you all the best and much success.
He also is saying very different things than what I am saying. I agree with Dalio. Big paradigm shifts... booms and busts....economic cycles.... etc etc. I can say I see a recurring pattern that people get fooled thinking they see patterns then get hit with ruin, and this repeats. You’re going to mislead a lot of traders that will read this and conclude the wrong things. Like using this to believe that technical analysis used as an inference tool with respect to the future works... Markers have a fractal patterns etc. For example, a one minute chart, looks the same as a 5 minute, looks the same as a 10 minute, looks the same as a 15 minute etc etc. Check Benoit Mandelbrots work on this... It’s completely different than what I am saying. Crowd behavior is unpredictable. Tomorrow, maybe at 1:00, liquidity may disappear, this is unpredictable. But there is a pattern that we can look at that and conclude that every once and a while... liquidity disappears. You see?
And this, GuerrillaTrading, is where many fall victim to Confirmation bias. Source: https://scienceofdoom.com/2010/02/12/the-confirmation-bias-or-why-none-of-us-are-really-skeptics/ “Taleb gives a great example of what we all really do in practice, from research by pyschologists. Pay attention to Nicholas.. Subjects were presented with the three number sequence 2, 4, 6 and asked to guess the rule generating it. Their method of guessing was to produce other three-number sequences to which the experimenter would say “yes” or “no” depending on whether the new sequences were consistent with the rule. What did the subjects do? They tried to guess the rule.. of course! That’s what they should have done. And then they tested it by.. producing a sequence consistent with their theory. So almost no one worked out that the real rule was simply, “numbers in ascending order” Perhaps they decided that the rule was a starting number x1, x2, x3. Or perhaps they decided that the rule was to take starting number then add 2, and add 2 again. And they generated a sample sequence from their theory and told the experimenter. But what almost no one did was to suggest a sequence inconsistent with their own mental theory – a test which would allow them to more easily falsify their theory.”