Please answer me.. if someone is risking ruin, and/or trading with negative EV(which is the same as ruin..), are they lucky when they experience gains whilst on their path to financial ruin? Disclaimer: Using a gambling example to better illustrate a concept --> When a gambler receives winnings whilst playing slots... were they lucky? We say yes... because we know that if they keep playing... they'll end up being losers. We never say.. wow you're so skilled! Good job honey!
And now you are introducing randomness into your examples! you compare 6 month chart down 15 percent to a 5 year chart up 3500 percent. Of COURSE, we'll give you different answers, you have chosen random timeframes! Use the scientific method. Compare an up and down 15 percent on same time 6 month frame, or up and down 3500 percent on same 5 year timeframe. In fact, scratch that. Let's just stop this sub-thread in the main thread, we will not get anywhere.
Bingo...I see too many contradictions in his story too as if he's getting lost in his own debates. People that have contradictions like that...they're just arguing just to argue. He doesn't even realize that some he's been consistently debating with do in fact hedge and say they have a positive EV or whatever. wrbtrader
You're missing the point. The point is we have more confidence in respect to something when we have more signal versus more noise. If I look at the news once.. yearly.. I'll have a better grasp at the world than if I look at every headline.. daily.. get it? I answered your questions.. kindly answer mine.. if someone is risking ruin, and/or trading with negative EV(which is the same as ruin..), are they lucky when they experience gains whilst on their path to financial ruin? Scientific method also has this problem of induction. It is an inductive method!!! The observations of 1,000 white swans cannot confirm that no black swans exist! This example alone highlights this!
No, I am not missing the point. You never answered my counter-question... If someone is achieving success, and/or trading with positive EV, (which is the same as success..), are they unlucky when they experience losses whilst on their path to financial success? The 1 black swan cannot confirm the existence of 1,000 white swans. Yer in a logic loop of randomness. Yer getting nowhere with your arguments.
Did I say the observation of 1 black swan cannot confirm the existence of 1,000 white swans? You missed the point again. If I use the scientific method and observe 1,000 white swans... it still doesn't confirm the existence of a black swan. If I see "patterns" on a chart, it doesn't confirm that the market has a pattern. One can be animals in the clouds, monkeys on typewriters. Note: I responded to all your points, and answered all your questions, kindly, if I may ask, please answer my (1) question..if someone is risking ruin, and/or trading with negative EV(which is the same as ruin..), are they lucky when they experience gains whilst on their path to financial ruin?
Oh, right, I think I found it. "Assuming they've truly hedged out risk of ruin and are in possession of a trading edge (statistically positive EV)... they can go ahead and believe whatever they want to believe, even if it's a lie... because they're winning nonetheless. But to associate the cause to TA is bullshit." So you answered my counter-question before I ever asked it. By basically telling every daytrader on this site that they will all eventually fail. I keep forgetting that!
There are contradictions but you're not able to see them. I've decided to leave you in that box where you've put yourself within. Its not my responsibility to help you in that department. You seem like a smart guy, go back and re-read your messages very carefully from the beginning...I challenge you to find your own contradictions when you say there's none. Yet, if you've made a mistake or misspoke...that's different. Another possibility, you've been debating with too many people (some of whom hedge successfully), you got lost in your own words when navigating from one argument to another. I'll let you get in the last word. Good night. wrbtrader